2021年1月29日金曜日

kelton…2021/01/04 The Pandemic Economy

https://youtu.be/S7SsCuZzdKQ
4:45
13:30
23:50

the economy is not recovering meanwhile the 600 top up in unemployment uh benefits has expired the ability of the government to backstop small business loans through the paycheck protection act that's expired the 1200 stimulus checks we got a one-off but there was promise that there would be more none of those things are happening i mean we have today about 40 million americans who um face the possibility of eviction we allowed people to not pay a mortgage payment for a period of time not pay rent but we didn't cancel those payments we just told people with respect to student loans and your rent and your mortgage we would give you four bearings in other words you can wait a little while but all those payments are backing up on you and the same is true of commercial real estate and other things so a lot of people owe a lot of money if congress doesn't provide the kind of fiscal support that this economy is going to need if we don't support incomes if we don't support jobs.
if we don't get a full uh robust economic recovery underway a financial crisis could well trigger something that puts us in a situation where we're looking at unemployment levels and a collapse in output that starts to look a whole lot like the experience of the 1930s.

well it's going to come from the only place it can come from and it's really the place that all government spending comes from congress has the power of the purse so what happened is that congress got together in the span of a pretty short uh matter of time and passed four major pieces of legislation the biggest of which was the cares act 2.2 trillion dollars so to put it in the simplest possible terms the money came out of a keyboard at the federal reserve what's there you can't go below the bottom of the purse you don't think that's right no i know that that's not right the federal government can do what all of the rest of us can't do it can spend money it doesn't have.
and so the reality is the the federal government is the issuer of the us dollar and the rest of us are merely users of the currency we have to get it in order to spend it the federal government can spend it into existence have we done enough no not not by a long shot and that's you know or that's what's so tragic in this moment i think you got a lot of people who recognize that this economy is teetering on the brink that you've got real problems in the months and possibly years ahead if we don't if congress doesn't act with further support.

i think the good news is that politicians have changed their minds and in a big way and i think enough of them recognize now that in fact the deficit is not the problem but that the deficit itself is the solution to the problems that we're facing and that there is no other way out i won't drop a name here because this isn't public um but i get phone calls from people and some chair powerful committees in the house and they have said things to me like you know i read your book and i used to be a deficit hawk and you've completely changed my mind so we want to get you in and we want to start these conversations so for me that's that's pretty good evidence that that there's hope for you know moving beyond the way we used to approach the federal budgeting process and getting to the point where you know congress begins to recognize that not only can they operate their budget differently from a household but that we desperately need them to.

景気は回復していません その間、失業給付金は6000ドルが上乗せされています 政府の中小企業向け融資を裏で支える能力は 給与保護法で失効しています 今日、約4000万人のアメリカ人が立ち退きの可能性に直面していますが、住宅ローンの支払いを一定期間滞納したり、家賃を払わなかったりすることはできましたが、それらの支払いを取り消したわけではありません。住宅ローンは4つのベアリングを提供します 言い換えれば、少しの間待つことができますが、これらの支払いはすべてあなたの上にバックアップされています 商業用不動産やその他のものにも同じことが言えます もし議会がこの経済が必要としているような 財政支援を提供しなければ 多くの人々が多額の借金をします
完全な経済回復が進まなければ、金融危機が引き金になって、失業率や生産高の崩壊が1930年代のような状況になる可能性があります。

それは、唯一の場所から来ることができます。政府の支出は、すべて議会の財布から来る場所です。 2兆ドルです。簡単に言えば、連邦準備銀行のキーボードから、お金が出てきました。それが何かというと、財布の底までは行けないということです。
現実には、連邦政府は米ドルの発行者であり、我々は通貨の使用者に過ぎないのです。連邦政府はそれを使うために通貨を手に入れなければなりません。

良いニュースは、政治家が考えを大きく変えたことです。彼らの多くが、実際には赤字が問題ではなく、赤字そのものが我々が直面している問題の解決策であり、他に出口はないということを認識していると思います。私は以前は赤字タカ派だったのですが、あなたは私の心を完全に変えてくれたので、あなたに参加してもらい、このような会話を始めたいと思っています。


04:45
the economy is not recovering meanwhile
04:47
the 600
04:49
top up in unemployment uh benefits has
04:51
expired
04:52
the ability of the government to
04:55
backstop
04:56
small business loans through the
04:58
paycheck protection act that's
04:59
expired the 1200 stimulus checks we got
05:02
a one-off
05:03
but there was promise that there would
05:04
be more none of those things are
05:06
happening i mean we have today
05:08
about 40 million americans who um
05:12
face the possibility of eviction we
05:14
allowed people to
05:16
not pay a mortgage payment for a period
05:18
of time not pay rent but we didn't
05:20
cancel those payments we just told
05:22
people with respect to student loans and
05:24
your rent and your mortgage
05:25
we would give you forbearance in other
05:26
words you can wait a little while but
05:28
all those payments are backing up on you
05:30
and the same is true of commercial real
05:32
estate and other things so a lot of
05:33
people owe a lot of money
05:35
if congress doesn't provide the kind of
05:37
fiscal support
05:38
that this economy is going to need if we
05:40
don't support incomes if we don't
05:42
support
05:43
jobs if we don't get a full uh
05:46
robust economic recovery underway a
05:49
financial crisis
05:50
could well trigger something that puts
05:53
us in a situation where we're looking at
05:54
unemployment levels and a collapse in
05:56
output
05:57
that starts to look a whole lot like the
05:59
experience of the 1930s



12:57
where is that money gonna come from well
12:59
it's gonna come from the only place it
13:01
can come from
13:02
and it's really the place that all
13:03
government spending comes from
13:05
congress has the power of the purse so
13:08
what happened
13:09
is that congress got together in the
13:11
span of a pretty short
13:12
uh matter of time and passed four major
13:15
pieces of legislation the biggest of
13:18
which
13:18
was the cares act 2.2 trillion dollars
13:21
so to put it in the simplest possible
13:24
terms
13:24
the money came out of a keyboard at the
13:27
federal reserve
13:28
but the other thing that we're told all
13:30
the time is that the government is kind
13:32
of like a household and you really can't
13:34
spend more than you earn you look in
13:35
your pocketbook you see what's there
13:38
you can't go below the bottom of the
13:40
purse you don't think that's right
13:42
no i know that that's not right the
13:44
federal government can do what
13:45
all of the rest of us can't do it can
13:48
spend money it doesn't
13:49
have and so the reality is the the
13:52
federal government is the
13:53
issuer of the us dollar and the rest of
13:56
us
13:56
are merely users of the currency we have
13:59
to get it in order to spend it
14:01
the federal government can spend it into
14:03
existence have we done enough
14:05
no not not by a long shot and that's you
14:08
know
14:08
laura that's what's so tragic in this
14:10
moment i think you got a lot of people
14:12
who recognize that this economy
14:15
is teetering on the brink that you've
14:17
got real problems in the months and
14:19
possibly years ahead
14:21
if we don't if congress doesn't act with
14:23
further support
14:25
talk a bit about what it will take for
14:27
any of this to happen











23:50
i think the good news is that
23:52
politicians
23:53
have changed their minds and in a big
23:56
way and i think
23:57
enough of them recognize now that in
24:00
fact the deficit
24:01
is not the problem but that the deficit
24:04
itself is the solution to the problems
24:06
that we're facing and that there is no
24:07
other way out
24:08
i won't drop a name here because this
24:10
isn't public um
24:11
but i get phone calls from people and
24:14
some chair powerful committees
24:16
in the house and they have said things
24:18
to me like you know i read your book
24:20
and i used to be a deficit hawk and
24:23
you've completely changed my mind
24:24
so we want to get you in and we want to
24:26
start these conversations so for me
24:29
that's that's pretty good evidence that
24:32
the
24:32
that there's hope for you know moving
24:34
beyond
24:35
the way we used to approach the federal
24:37
budgeting process and
24:39
getting to the point where you know
24:41
congress begins to recognize that
24:43
um not only can they operate their
24:46
budget differently from a household
24:48
but that we desperately need them to i

we have lost 22 million let me just repeat that 22 million jobs a lot of people owe a lot of money the economy is not recovering we have to be bold and transformative in how we tackle the crisis for everybody in this nation normal is not survivable for our planet for our communities we refuse to go back we're going to use this crisis to create the world that we've always dreamed of for our children it's all coming up on the laura flanders show the place where the people who say it can't be done take a back seat to the people who are doing it [Music] the economic collapse unfolding before our eyes is bigger than it appears and the solution demands way more than simply building back better if our government's response to the 2008 financial crisis taught us anything it's that what some call a recovery can leave a lot of us behind that's particularly true of african-american indigenous and other people of color as well as everyone who was working poor or just flat out poor if the goal this time is to make our economy and our people more resilient healthier and better off what's needed what do we need to rebuild what do we need to abandon and what lessons can we learn from the past in this episode we hear from visionary economists and labor organizers and others about what is possible and how we get it done from the bottom up and the top down we're talking pandemic economics this week on the laura flanders show to begin let's take in the scale of the problem robert reich was the labor secretary in the administration of bill clinton from 1993 to 97 today he's a professor of economics at uc berkeley and the author most recently of the system who rigged it how to fix it all of the ways in which people were already extremely vulnerable uh have simply become much more evident we have lost 22 million let me just repeat that 22 million jobs we've regained over the last few months some of those jobs but we're still down about 12 million jobs so this is this is hardly a recovery mary kay henry is the president of the service employees international union or seiu one of the largest unions in north america the onset of the pandemic and the complete and utter failure of our federal government to think about how to protect every essential worker on the front lines was the first uh hit on all of our members and then the second hit was the economic collapse and then as you know in may there was an escalation of the racial reckoning in this country and then our members along the west coast um had family members die in the fires because poor and working-class people don't have the resources to evacuate i hear our members say that they're holding grief um in the same quantity as they are holding a righteous indignation that we are not going to return to normal it norm will never work for us esteban kelly is executive director of the u.s federation of worker cooperatives the nation's largest network of businesses owned and governed by their workers we were worried a lot of us are concentrated in service sector jobs uh retail jobs and then also a lot of our members are our essential workers frontline workers in healthcare grocery stores transportation so while everyone was quarantining and locked in doors a lot of our members were on the front lines stephanie kelton is a professor of economics at stony brook university and a leading proponent of something called modern monetary theory she's the author of the deficit myth modern monetary theory and the birth of the people's economy.

5:20
kelton:
the economy is not recovering meanwhile the 600 top up in unemployment uh benefits has expired the ability of the government to backstop small business loans through the paycheck protection act that's expired the 1200 stimulus checks we got a one-off but there was promise that there would be more none of those things are happening i mean we have today about 40 million americans who um face the possibility of eviction we allowed people to not pay a mortgage payment for a period of time not pay rent but we didn't cancel those payments we just told people with respect to student loans and your rent and your mortgage we would give you forbearance in other words you can wait a little while but all those payments are backing up on you and the same is true of commercial real estate and other things so a lot of people owe a lot of money if congress doesn't provide the kind of fiscal support that this economy is going to need if we don't support incomes if we don't support jobs if we don't get a full uh robust economic recovery underway a financial crisis could well trigger something that puts us in a situation where we're looking at unemployment levels and a collapse in output that starts to look a whole lot like the experience of the 1930s we were a discouraged people because we were the first to lose our jobs when old man depression came along and the last to get them back we struggled vainly to regain our bearings while depression fear and failure stalk the nation tidings from the outside world reach the farmer but no matter what news he has received it cannot be as harrowing as the story he has to tell straw where there should have been wheat emptiness where there was hope the great depression black and white photos and grainy old film of long lines of unemployed workers decimated farmland and shantytowns could give you the sense that that kind of widespread economic calamity is a thing of the past that's what you might have thought until you saw 2020. the depression of the 1930s was caused by uh just a kind of explosion starting with wall street an explosion of debt that couldn't be repaid and it affected almost everybody by 1933 one out of four working people have lost their jobs there was massive poverty franklin d roosevelt was elected and took over in 1933 didn't really know what he was going to do there was no blueprint roosevelt tried everything without jobs we had no money and without money we could not purchase food for the hungry mouths at home our only hope lay in charity hunger drove our people to the breadlines anxiously we waited waited for some sign of better days then came the federal government's work program one by one it took us out of the bread line it gave us a new chance to take a normal place in the life of our community it made us self-supporting it changed the haggard hopeless faces of the bread line into faces filled with hope and happiness for now we work again america here is a record of it to judge for yourself city streets pounded by ever-increasing traffic are modernized resurfaced thousands of blocks which mean huge savings in local tax money vital to the communities which they serve are the thousands of miles of highways constructed and improved by the works program each of these projects has been planned to meet a real need in the community which it serves to take care of the unemployed as well as to confer real and lasting benefits on the people of the united states is the object of the wpa under this program work pays america [Music] most historians and most economic historians conclude that much of what he did was helpful but what really got us out of the great depression was world war ii because it required government spending on such a massive level and that was the only thing that was uh almost inevitably going to get us out of recession because you see people didn't have any money they didn't have enough money to create the demand for all the goods and services that the economy would be capable of producing if everybody was employed thousands of young women are gaining experience in power sewing to meet demands occasioned by the war others are being trained in clerical work in photography and in poster work during the training period they also do productive work for the armed services for the red cross and for selective service polls in many cases they have released men for active duty in the armed forces are there any periods that you compare to this one that you learn lessons from well i think we draw from uh the early 1930s uh when there was militant action on behalf of working people across race that made transformative change in this condition of working people in labor the flint sit down strikers created a standard of auto work in this country that eliminated poverty wages and started to build a middle class i think another touchstone that i've heard our members talk about is we have the capacity as a nation after world war ii to help europe rebuild we need to draw on that same capacity and scale to think about how to build a new america that includes everybody undocumented immigrants black americans asian pacific islanders native americans and white working poor people that have always been excluded this isn't the first time that cooperatives um worker owned cooperatives consumer cooperatives have responded to a crisis in the lives of americans i'm thinking of um reconstruction era depression era are there periods that you look back to for a historic parallel that that fits or or has lessons to teach i think that it's been really helpful thinking about the history of racial capitalism and anti-black racism and and leaning on the wisdom and organizing from um from women of color from from black feminist uh leaders like fannie lou hamer like ella baker um who use cooperative models um as the as a way to build wealth um and and just mechanisms for survivals you know economic prosperity in especially african-american communities people's movements in response to the great depression forced the us government to act and enact many of the reforms we think of as part and parcel of american life today what could the government do in response to our current crisis again robert reich and stephanie kelton have some answers we don't know what would have happened in the 1930s if it hadn't been for world war ii and you say rightly that a lot of what we saw in terms of um recovery came on the backs of the war economy created in that time massive spending is what a lot of people are calling for right now is that what you see as being the primary thing needed uh yes you need two things and there are two levers of macroeconomic policy one lever is at the fed that's keeping interest rates low and jerome powell has said that's exactly what he's going to do that's fine but that can't be the only lever keeping the stock market going has almost nothing to do with the actual economy that most people live in so you do need the other side of economic policy the other lever which is fiscal policy that is congress and the president have got to stimulate the economy big time and the third third thing you have to do is get some control over this uh coronavirus if you don't get some control of the coronavirus then items one and two don't really count very much we just heard robert reich describe a whole lot of spending um being required in this moment where is that money gonna come from well it's gonna come from the only place it can come from and it's really the place that all government spending comes from congress has the power of the purse so what happened is that congress got together in the span of a pretty short uh matter of time and passed four major pieces of legislation the biggest of which was the cares act 2.2 trillion dollars so to put it in the simplest possible terms the money came out of a keyboard at the federal reserve but the other thing that we're told all the time is that the government is kind of like a household and you really can't spend more than you earn you look in your pocketbook you see what's there you can't go below the bottom of the purse you don't think that's right no i know that that's not right the federal government can do what all of the rest of us can't do it can spend money it doesn't have and so the reality is the the federal government is the issuer of the us dollar and the rest of us are merely users of the currency we have to get it in order to spend it the federal government can spend it into existence have we done enough no not not by a long shot and that's you know laura that's what's so tragic in this moment i think you got a lot of people who recognize that this economy is teetering on the brink that you've got real problems in the months and possibly years ahead if we don't if congress doesn't act with further support talk a bit about what it will take for any of this to happen you served in in government you know it's not easy to make change no it's not easy and actually washington is almost the last place where change is going to happen uh because uh washington tends to even with good people in washington uh tends to reinforce the status quo you need good people outside washington who are mobilized and organized and energized uh to make the kind of changes that are necessary but that's where i'm optimistic i think that people understand that widening equality stagnant wages for most people uh that this concentration of wealth and power at the top is bad for our democracy it's bad for the country uh and rather than running around screaming uh what needs to happen is people need to mobilize and organize and energize everybody else to vote and uh to be active politically and that's really what i've been trying to push more than at any time in recent decades americans are indeed mobilizing for economic justice and equity and coming to one another's aid at a community level the pandemic economy has forced many to recognize that the people we rely on our essential workers have long been under compensated unprotected and downright exploited to speak about how those essential workers and businesses are responding i spoke again with mary kay henry and esteban kelly how do you update the the sit-down strike of the 30s to this moment and to the workers you represent well we've been doing it we think through the fight for 15 for the past eight years when fast food workers have galvanized strikes most recently on july 20th we did a strike for black lives that was cross movement and so i think we need to combine militant action with mobilization across sector where we unite with the racial justice movement the immigrant movement the women's movement the lgbtq the climate movement to create a united force for change and then the third thing we need to do is make a decision as a labor movement that we are going to rewrite the rules that have been rigged against workers being able to join together and have the power to bargain a better life and that's what auto workers did there was no law that protected gm ford and chrysler workers from making common cause with each other their militancy forced uh the companies to a joint table and the democratic governor in michigan decided not to call off the call out the national guard to suppress the strike it has been done in other states and so it does also require us to open a front in using our political strength to get uh elected officials to stand with workers as they challenge corporate power a lot of white america is reeling in this period realizing oh government's not there for me the social safety net's not there for me but a lot of people of color in this country have been in that situation before historically and in those moments of crisis have come up with strategies that are serving you well right now our members were some of the first businesses to ramp up the personal protective equipment some of them actually manufactured it for one another so um in north carolina the carolina industrial commons retrofitted their factory their warehouse which normally does textiles and they moved into making gowns and masks for hospital workers and shipped them up to the bronx where our largest member cooperative home care associates which does healthcare home healthcare they were running short on equipment so because they were all connected to our membership network they were able to to tap into the community to do the sourcing and fill in those gaps in the supply chain i mean if you are a worker in the united states you are in the best position possible if you were inside of a worker-owned cooperative bottom-up strategies of mutual aid enough of course we know how to snap into formation for the very immediate and acute problems and crises and that um that infrastructure always needs partnership to scale and it's why we form political coalitions even just with the cares act we had a political coalition on the hill um and were able to advocate to make sure that cooperative businesses had access to the personal um the payroll protection program um to the economic injury and disaster loans that other but for our involvement would have prohibited cooperative involvement to that and and when i'm saying that grassroots efforts are not enough um it's why we're ramping up our legislative agenda it's why we're working with city councils um not just with progressive mayors but but really with with local and regional elected officials so what does the future hold with a new administration on the horizon and a whole lot of work to do to get the economy and society we imagine ahead i ask our guests about their vision for what's next on the long march from a pandemic economy to a democratic one we feel in many ways sort of on the precipice of something as we're speaking we've seen a year of the worst we're talking about creating not just a return but something new how do you think about elections in this context we think elections matter for um making a demand on what we as working people and communities of all races uh have the right to expect uh in this nation we don't think the election is the only thing we think of it as a step in how we are going to achieve the just society that our members organize around and bargain and stay in the streets demanding every day of our lives we refuse to return to thinking about the past as a measure for what we should expect in the present and because the depth of the crisis is so beyond anything anybody's ever experienced we have to be bold and transformative in how we tackle the crisis for everybody in this nation and our unique contribution is going to be to make home care jobs the foundation of the next most inclusive most racially diverse middle class that this nation has ever seen do you want to go back to quote unquote normal how is normal for your members oh give me a break laura you know that we've had issues with normal for a long time um and and and i think that part of the shift at least from the social solidarity economy movement and the cooperative movement is that for too long we were we were comfortable adapting to our our marginal niche within what normal used to be that is to say we were like yeah normal kind of is uh it's not so good we're gonna do something alternative over here have fun with your normal and for the last decade we have said actually normal is not survivable for our planet for our communities um and and we can't take it anymore and it's not adequate for some people to enjoy the um the liberation that comes with um our models in an alternative way we're going for the mainstream um i think that certainly the leadership of senator bernie sanders um has made that clearer um how how mainstreamable um worker ownership is cooperative economics um and and just even ideas of the solidarity economy that our our communities can own um our the assets public land industries enterprises whether as a public commons or as cooperatively owned community-owned membership-owned or worker-owned private businesses which is what cooperatives are those things fit together really neatly especially alongside strong and robust unions where there is worker voice and worker power even when it needs to be embedded in something like um public institutions um universities or or to the extent that we're gonna have to live with private corporations during the transition to a just sustainable economy there's a lot of repair that needs to happen to a country founded on settler colonialism chattel slavery um and stretching out into an international um empire um the war machine of the united states so examining all those relationships um is is incumbent on us and that's finally happening not just in academia not just in the front lines of social movements but everyday americans at their kitchen table are like huh white supremacy really is a problem isn't it and i think that that's what's going to guide us toward um uh building the um the new the new normal as a as a mainstream and not some return to uh so-called normalcy i think the good news is that politicians have changed their minds and in a big way and i think enough of them recognize now that in fact the deficit is not the problem but that the deficit itself is the solution to the problems that we're facing and that there is no other way out i won't drop a name here because this isn't public um but i get phone calls from people and some chair powerful committees in the house and they have said things to me like you know i read your book and i used to be a deficit hawk and you've completely changed my mind so we want to get you in and we want to start these conversations so for me that's that's pretty good evidence that the that there's hope for you know moving beyond the way we used to approach the federal budgeting process and getting to the point where you know congress begins to recognize that um not only can they operate their budget differently from a household but that we desperately need them to i think that we are seeing and about to see uh something that parallels the progressive era that occurred in the first part of the 20th century right after the the gilded age of the late 19th century we have a new gilded age now uh with the same characteristics as the first building age in terms of widening inequality and poverty and corruption and bribery and all these other things and people are outraged.
and i would not be surprised if the next 20 years were a period of a fundamental social change toward a democracy that works for most people instead of just for a small number and an economy that works for a large number instead of a small number i'm reminded of the words of the great justice lewis brandeis uh who said in the 1920s on the cusp of the first gilded age he said we have a choice in this country we can either have great wealth in the hands of a few or we can have a democracy but we can't have both and i think those words are equally applicable today for more on this episode and other forward thinking content and to tune into our podcast visit our website at lauraflanders.org and follow us on social media at the lf show you.
 [Music] [Music]


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