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Kelton 2020/11/30 cbc https://t.co/voaQ8xPvjk
2020/11/30
CBC News Net Preview Channel https://t.co/OYFfDP48iD
カナダの女性政治家がMMTに否定的発言
IMFの傀儡だ
ケルトン教授が間接的に応答している
Freeland
2020/10/28https://t.co/5RDFktBdEl pic.twitter.com/wh1LuvAyoM
2020/11/30
CBC News Net Preview Channel
https://youtu.be/dD9MMFqhjZY
2020/10/28
Finance minister addresses Toronto Global Forum on Canada's COVID-19 rec...
https://youtu.be/mlGcHG11KAE?t=24m37s
Rosemary:
even in what are we almost december it's very gray here uh big deficits usually lead to big concerns but stephanie kelton has got a totally different opinion the economist and author of the best-selling book the deficit myth looks at debt and deficit in a different way she's become the face of modern monetary theory that says balanced budgets are overrated stephanie kelton will join us after oh she joins us right now there she is stephanie kelton nice to see you again
Kelton:
nice to be with you thanks.
Rosemary:
um so you've overheard us they're talking a lot about um economic updates tomorrow canada will present one the deficit will probably be at an all-time high once again it's got a lot of people worried what would you say to people worried about a huge deficit the biggest deficit we've ever seen?
Kelton:
don't worry that's the the really important message you know the the deficit so many people perceive this thing to be part of the problem and the reality is that it is in a very important way part of the solution to getting out of the pro the the real problem that we're in which is a recession induced by a health pandemic right and these deficits are really important they're playing an important role in getting us to the other side of this and so people need to take a deep breath sort of you know exhale and recognize that you know this this thing that we hear about all the time that people tell us is such a scary and dangerous thing is really nothing more than the difference between two numbers that's what the deficit is it's the difference between how many dollars the government is spending into the economy to support it and how many dollars it's subtracting back out mostly in the form of taxes so a deficit is nothing more than the financial contribution that the canadian government is making to the rest of the economy that's important
Rosemary:
can can you give i know this is hard because you've written a whole book about it but could you give a short definition for people about modern monetary theory that just the basics so people can understand where you're coming from
ローズマリー
しかし、ステファニー・ケルトンは全く違う意見を持っています。経済学者であり、ベストセラーの本「赤字神話」の著者でもある彼女は、債務と赤字を別の方法で分析し、バランスのとれた予算は過大評価されているとする現代の金融理論の顔となっています。
ケルトン
よろしくお願いします
ローズマリー
あなたは私たちの話を小耳に挟んでいます 彼らは明日カナダの経済の最新情報について 多くの話をしています 赤字はおそらく過去最高の水準になるでしょう 再びそれは多くの人々を不安に陥れています膨大な赤字を心配している人々に何と言うのでしょうか？
ケルトン
多くの人が赤字を問題の一部と認識していますが、実際には、赤字は非常に重要な意味で、私たちが直面している本当の問題から抜け出すための解決策の一部となっています。赤字とは、政府が経済を支えるためにどれだけのドルを経済に使っているかと、政府がどれだけのドルを税金の形で引いているかの差です。
ローズマリー
あなたはそれについての本を全部書いているので、これは難しいことだと思いますが、現代の貨幣論について、人々のために簡単な定義を教えてください。
Kelton:
sure so essentially you know in a nutshell we want to recognize that the monetary system that is in place today in a country like canada or in a country like the us and australia japan and many others is in no way like the monetary systems of yesteryear we are not on a gold standard we're not on a fixed exchange rate system the monetary system has changed in important ways especially post 1971 we had this international monetary system called bretton woods countries were fixing their exchange rates to one another's currencies and then through the us dollar the currency was convertible into gold internationally all of that is gone and because the monetary system has changed in these fundamental ways it has opened up policy space for governments to orient their budgets more freely in other words governments face fewer constraints under the new monetary system than they faced under an old fixed exchange rate gold standard type of system so there's more capacity for governments to run budgets um more appropriately when the economy is weak and um that really is kind of a game changer.
Rosemary:
yeah that was a very good explanation i'm sure you've had to do that before in a short period of time i want to play a clip if i can uh to you of our finance minister and deputy prime minister christian freeland who might you might even know uh commenting on on her thoughts on modern monetary theory here's what she said just last month.
Freeland:
i am not among those who think canada should have a fling with modern monetary theory,
which holds that deficits don't matter for a government that issues debt in its own currency.
Rosemary:
uh stephanie kelton uh you know christy freeland has has been um an economist herself she's she's studied it.
um and and there she is saying that you know this isn't this isn't the kind of thing i want to consider is that because it is uh too risky politically.
do you think for governments to state openly that this is a viable path?
Kelton:
well look i you say she studied it i'm not sure what the it is in that sentence she studied some economic but it's not clear from that statement that she studied anything from the mmt kind of canada or the literature or the scholarship.
so when she says i'm not someone who believes that deficits don't matter well neither am i so if she's under the impression that mmt is about deficits don't matter then i think we have pretty good evidence that she hasn't actually understood what mmt is saying mmt is saying deficits matter,
but they don't matter the way that we've been taught to believe they matter.
Rosemary:
so we also in this country talk a lot about a fiscal anchor um or the government currently is talking about guard rails and the importance for for this government has been to keep our debt to gdp ratio uh in line it does that make sense to you in terms of uh in terms of trying to manage a deficit and and over the longer term debt?
Kelton:
no. um i don't think that there is any particular importance i would certainly never target a a ratio like the the ratio of debt relative to the size of the canadian economy or to the size of the u.s economy you look at japan for example where the debt to gdp ratio is something like 240 percent so orders of magnitude higher than anything you have in canada or anything we have here in the u.s and yet the government's interest rate on 10-year bonds in japan is zero they can't get inflation up to two percent and so the things that we would want to worry about with respect to a government's budget position you know or things like the inflationary pressures that might be costs and so there's just no evidence that that ratio is in and of itself anything important.
Rosemary:
so so then to to the fiscal conservatives in this country and the the members of the official opposition who would say to you well we cannot go on like this we will leave this as a problem for future generations what what would you say to them?
Kelton:
so look it is not a problem for future generations these are financial assets what we're talking about this word gets in the way right because we call this the public debt or the national debt and that word is intrusive and unhelpful so what we should recognize is that what the canadian government is doing is it is providing as part of the support that it's providing to the economy canadian government bonds okay .
those are financial assets to their holders this is something that becomes part of the wealth of the bondholders so think about it this way when the government is running a fiscal deficit it's adding more dollars to the economy than it is subtracting so using really simple numbers suppose a canadian government spends a hundred dollars into the economy and only taxes ninety dollars back out its deficit has made a contribution a financial contribution of ten dollars to some part of the canadian economy it could stop there and just leave the ten canadian dollars sitting in someone's hands but it doesn't instead it matches up its deficit spending by selling canadian government bonds so here's what happens the canadian government subtracts those 10 canadian dollars back out and replaces them with 10 canadian government bonds okay so both of these are financial instruments both issued by the canadian government they can't come from anywhere else and so what really happens is the government is making a contribution in the form of a canadian government bond that's a financial asset that's part of someone's wealth when the bond matures what happens the government retires it by returning its original form of payment it just pays back canadian dollars there's nothing inherently dangerous about any of this what matters is are you making investments that are supporting the economy are you avoiding an inflation problem and apart from that the deficit itself again as i started off saying is part of the solution to the problem we're facing.
Rosemary:
stephanie kelton i wish i had longer uh but you did an awfully good job explaining a very complicated theory and i've enjoyed listening to you on podcasts and your book very much thank you for your time today thank you for having me all right that's stephanie kelton we're going to take a short break here on rbl back right after this.
ケルトン
要するに、簡単に言えば、カナダやオーストラリア、日本、その他多くの国で今日行われている通貨制度は、昔の通貨制度とは全く違うということを認識しておきたいと思います。貨幣制度が根本的に変化したことで、政府がより自由に予算を組むことができるようになりました。言い換えれば、新しい貨幣制度の下では、以前の固定為替相場制の金本位制の下で直面していた制約が少なくなります。
ローズマリー
先月の彼女の発言を紹介したいと思います。
フリーランド
私は、カナダが自国通貨で借金をしている政府にとって赤字は問題ではないという現代通貨理論と
ローズマリー
クリスティ・フリーランドは経済学者で、彼女自身も経済理論を研究してきましたが、彼女はこう言っています。
ケルトン
彼女は経済学を勉強したと言っていますが，その文の中で何を勉強したのかはよくわかりません。赤字は重要だが、重要だと教えられてきたようには重要ではないと言っているのです。
ローズマリー
この国では、財政のアンカー、つまり政府は現在、ガードレールの話をしていますが、この政府にとって重要なのは、対GDP比を一定に保つことです。
ケルトンです
私は特に重要だとは思いませんが、カナダの経済規模や米国の経済規模に対する債務の比率のような比率を目標にすることは絶対にありません。 日本の１０年国債の金利はゼロで、インフレ率を２％まで上げることはできません。政府の財政状況や、インフレ圧力のようなコストを心配する必要があります。
ローズマリー
では、この国の財政保守派や公式の野党議員に対して、あなたは何と言うでしょうか？
ケルトン
これは将来の世代のための問題ではありません。これは金融資産ですが、私たちが話していることは、この言葉が邪魔をします。政府が財政赤字を出している時には、本当に簡単な数字を使って、カナダ政府が経済に１００ドルを使い、９０ドルしか税金を使わず、その赤字はカナダ経済の一部に１０ドルの財政的貢献をしているとします。
その赤字はカナダ経済の一部に 10ドルの財政的貢献をしています そこで止めて 10カナダドルを誰かの手の中に置いておくこともできますが そうしません 代わりにカナダ国債を売ることで 赤字の支出を補填しています ここで何が起こるかというと カナダ政府はその10カナダドルを 差し引いて戻ってきますこれはどちらもカナダ政府が発行する金融商品で他の国からは調達できません 実際に何が起こるかというと 政府はカナダ国債という形で貢献しています これは誰かの富の一部である金融資産です 政府はそれを元の支払い形態に戻すことで 償還します カナダドルを返済するだけです 本質的に危険なことは何もありません 重要なのは 経済を支えている投資をしているかどうか インフレ問題を回避しているかどうかです それとは別に 私が最初に言ったように 赤字自体は 我々が直面している問題の解決策の一部です
ローズマリー
ステファニー・ケルトン......もっと長ければよかったのですが......あなたは非常に複雑な理論を非常によく説明してくれました。
ポッドキャストやあなたの本を 楽しく聞いていました 今日はお時間を頂きありがとうございました
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