Note: adjust the quantity of bones to calibrate with the national unemployment rate
nce upon a time there was a small community comprising 100 dog bone-winners and their families. Each morning for as long as anyone can remember the 100 dogs set off into the field to dig for bones to bring back home to their families. The government's bone policy was designed to ensure that there were always enough bones for all the bone-winners to succeed in their search and no dog families went without a bone. The community was secure, young dogs were happy and well prepared to take over the bone-winner's role when the older dogs retired. There was no bone-stealing and all the bone-winners always had an incentive to get up each day to dig for the bones that were buried in the field each night.
Each morning, the bone-winners would groom themselves with pride and head off to the field. You could see how keen they were to get on the road and go and dig for bones (see picture to right). One day the 100 dog bone-winners set off for the field and when they arrived they found there were only 94 bones buried. Some dogs who were always very sharp dug up two bones as usual, others dug up the usual one bone. However, as a matter of accounting, at least 6 dog bone-winners returned home to their families that day bone-less. There was initial despair but because this had never happened before the bone-less families pulled together and ensured that their bone-winner maintained spirit and arose earlier than usual next morning and spent the extra time grooming and getting prepared for the day in the field.
But the pattern set in and the next day the 100 dogs set out to dig for 94 bones. They searched vigorously but only 94 bones were in the field. The situation started to get desperate and the government bone policy took a sharp turn and started to focus on the motivation of the bone-seekers who were bone-less.
Consultants were called in - dog psychologists and dog-trainers - to work on the attitudes of the bone-less dogs. Initially there was resistance because the dogs didn't feel that they were to blame. 100 dogs but only 94 bones. The Bone Network was established by BoneCentre to provide various programs designed to help the bone-less dogs get back into bone-winning shape and organisations sprung up all over the small community to offer Bone Network services. The bone-less dogs began to hear new terms like bone-seekers and the staff in the Bone Network provider offices often called them clients. As time went by changes continued and each bone-less dog (and by now more than 25 per cent of them had been in that state for over 52 weeks) had to attend the nearest Bone Network office and be classified by the Bone Seeker Classification Instrument (BSCI). One dog was asked about the assessment process undertaken in the BSCI interview by the BoneCentre officer. The dog replied that the BoneCentre officer had a big sheet and put down numbers. Every time the dog fidgeted a bit a bad score under the heading "observable behaviours" was noted. The bone-less dog was considered a problem if they were "too quiet", or "too loud", or "talked over", or used "inappropriate or aggressive language", "talked incessantly", showed a "lack of insight", had "unusual dress", "inappropriate make-up application", and "shaked, paced, twitched, trembled" and almost any other sign of nervousness that accompanied their bone-less state.
The young dogs in the dog-school yards started using new words to describe the dog-parents who were bone-less. One bone-less dog heard his young pup using terminology like Bone Snobs in the back dog-yard one evening and the dog was filled with despair and self-hate. You could clearly observe the change in the grooming and bearing of the bone-less dogs. Once proud now forlorn. Some of them became ill while others found their families were no longer the happy places as they had previously been. The dog divorce rate increased. The typical vibrant nightly family discussions that came after the day's bone digging were now marked with a sense of purposelessness and the whole bone-less dog-family was affected. BoneCentre also introduced a new scheme designed to ensure that the bone-less dogs earned the survival bones that were given to them. This became known as the very popular Dig For The Bone program and BoneCentre officials talked endlessly about compliance and mutual obligation. One bone-less dog muttered that mutual was like a tango - it needed two parties to be successful.
BoneCentre also commissioned a major consultant's report which identified eight bone seeker segments, which reflected the bone-seeker's level of motivation towards the bone search activity. A complex diagram summarised the eight segments. Only one of these segments was focused on by the community's media next day. It identified Cruising Bone Seekers who were described as being relaxed about being bone-less and didn't really want to return to the field and had stopped going out to the field each day. The terminology quickly entered the kid's dog-school yard jargon. Any dog walking down the street during the hours when they would normally be digging in the field were taunted with the term. But there were still 100 dogs willing to dig each day and only 94 bones. BoneCentre published a monthly Bone-Less rate and this became contentious because the definition of being bone-less excluded those who didn't go out to the field each day. The same dogs had always gone out and would again but they understood the equation - 100 dogs 94 bones. BoneCentre said that the Bone-Less rate was around 3 per cent and would drop further once the benefits of the Bone Network were realised.
Some of the help given by the Bone Network helped make some individuals more motivated and aggressive and so subtle changes were noticed in the composition of the bone-less dogs at the end of each day. But no matter how many resources BoneCentre pumped into the Bone Network, there were still many dogs who remained bone-less day in day out. They steadily lost their pride and their appearance became increasingly worrying (see a typical Long-Term Bone-Less Dog to the right). The rate of bone theft rose dramatically and dog prisons started to grow at a faster rate than dog schools as the government rallied the community around law and order issues.
However, whichever way you counted the bone-less rate there were 100 dogs wanting to go to the field each day and only 94 bones were buried there.
100 dogs and 94 bones.
THE END
Thanks to Phillip Harvey for inspiration. Ideal for children as a bed-time story. It teaches them about their future.
Conclusion
返信削除These examples demonstrate that macroeconomics is a highly contested discipline in terms of theory and policy prescription. When assessing the statements made by financial commentators and economists in the public debate, one must continually refer back to the stylised facts. It is important that students gain familiarity with the language of macroeconomics and understand the key concepts and theories, which will be developed in the following chapters.
References
Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE) (c. 2001) The Tale of 100 Dogs and 95 Bones. Available at: http:// e1. newcastle.edu.au/ coffee/ education/ education_view.cfm? ID = 1, accessed 10 July 2018. Henry, J.F. (2012) The Making of Neoclassical Economics, Routledge Revivals, Abingdon: Taylor & Francis. Kaldor, N. (1957) “A Model of Economic Growth”, The Economic Journal, 67( 268), 591–624. Keynes, J.M. (1936) The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, London: Macmillan. Kuhn, T.S. (1970) The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, 2nd edn, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Marx, K. (1867) Capital, Volume I, London: Everyman’s Library. McCloskey, D. (1985) The Rhetoric of Economics, Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin Press. Samuelson, P. (1947) Foundations of Economic Analysis, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
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返信削除#14
BOX 14.1 THE TALE OF 100 DOGS AND 95 BONES
Imagine a small community comprising 100 dogs. Each morning they set off into the field to dig for bones. If there are enough bones for all buried in the field, then all the dogs could succeed in their search.
Now imagine that one day the 100 dogs set off for the field as usual but this time they find there are only 95 bones buried.
Some dogs who were always very skilled at finding bones might dig up two bones and others will dig up the usual one bone. But, as a matter of accounting, at least five dogs will return home bone-less.
Now imagine that the government decides that this is unsustainable and decides that it is the skills and motivation of the bone-less dogs that is the problem. They are not skilled or motivated enough. Thus, if the problem were to be constructed to be an individual one, then an individual-ised solution would be appropriate.
So, a range of dog psychologists and dog trainers might be called in to work on the attitudes and skills of the bone-less dogs. The dogs undergo assessment and are assigned case managers. They are told that unless they train they will miss out on their nightly bowl of food that the government provides to them while bone-less. They feel despondent.
After running and digging skills are imparted to the bone-less dogs, things start to change. While the training helps some dogs improve their luck at finding bones, others turn up boneless. All the training does is to shuffle the queue, always leaving at least 5 dogs without bones.
No amount of training and motivational speeches can resolve the problem; the only solution is to provide more bones.
The point is that when there are insufficient jobs available in the economy, the unemployed are powerless to redress that shortage no matter how hard they search.
Supply side programmes, concentrating on the motivation or skills of the unemployed, will only shuffle the jobless queue in a situation of jobs shortage.
Source: Based on ideas within Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE) (c. 2001)
#2
返信削除#14
BOX 14.1 100匹の犬と95匹の骨の物語
100匹の犬で構成される小さなコミュニティを想像してみてください。彼らは毎朝、骨を掘るために畑に出かける。畑に埋まっている骨が十分にあれば、すべての犬がその捜索を成功させることができます。
さて、ある日100匹の犬がいつものように畑に出たとすると、今度は95匹しか埋まっていないことがわかります。
いつも骨を見つけることに長けていた犬の中には、2つの骨を掘る犬もいれば、いつもの1つの骨を掘る犬もいるでしょう。しかし、会計上の問題として、少なくとも５匹の犬が骨なしで帰ってくることになります。
さて、想像してみてください。政府がこれは持続不可能だと判断し、問題は骨なし犬の技術とやる気にあると判断したとします。彼らは十分な技術を持っていないし、やる気もないのです。したがって、問題が個人のものであるように構築されているのであれば、個人に合わせた解決策が適切であろう。
そこで、犬の心理学者やドッグトレーナーの範囲は、骨なし犬の態度やスキルに取り組むために呼ばれるかもしれません。犬は評価を受け、ケースマネージャーが割り当てられています。彼らは、彼らが訓練しない限り、彼らは政府が骨なしながら、彼らに提供している食品の彼らの毎晩のボウルを欠場することになると言われています。彼らは落胆を感じる。
実行し、スキルを掘ることが骨なし犬に付与された後、物事が変更され始めます。訓練によって骨を見つける運が良くなる犬もいれば、骨抜きになってしまう犬もいる。トレーニングの結果、骨なし犬は常に最低でも5匹は残っています。
いくらトレーニングをしても、やる気を起こさせるスピーチをしても、この問題は解決しません。
要は、経済の中に十分な仕事がない場合、失業者がどれだけ探しても、その不足を補う力がないということです。
失業者のモチベーションやスキルに焦点を当てた供給側のプログラムは、雇用不足の状況下では失業者の列をかき乱すだけである。
ソース。完全雇用と公平性センター(CofFEE)の考えに基づく(c. 2001)