2020年12月4日 Kelton msnbc

https://youtu.be/0ss0I8pptLo

more on what that recovery will need i'm joined by stephanie kelton former chief economist for democrats senate budget committee now a professor of economics and public policy at stony brook university um stephanie it was interesting to me to i i follow and read a lot of macroeconomic commentators reporters and and economists um and across the political spectrum some folks who are more sort of finance and wall street people some people who are republican aligned some that are democrat liberal everyone was kind of freaked out by the jobs report today why was that?

kelton:

 well i think because it's just further evidence of what we've all recognized has been taking place for a period of time and that is that you know this economy is really in the midst of a slow motion train wreck that this recovery which was uneven and bifurcated to begin with that's why people like uh president-elect biden have been referring to it as a k-shaped recovery we already had problems with the recovery in the sense that it wasn't bringing everyone along now we see that the recovery bifurcated and uneven as it was is beginning to slow down and so we know that what lies ahead is really you know it's renewed carnage chris in the economy and we all saw it coming.

msnbc :

someone made this point which was interesting to me you know this whole year is weird right i mean it's almost like a it's like an exam question on a a macro exam right like what happens if you shut down the economy and then try to restart it um that you know you can get into a situation whether it's local federal budgets or its businesses closing where there's a cascading effect where things get worse where the sort of snowball starts rolling down the hill how much is that a worry?

kelton:

 it's a huge worry and if i were putting this on an exam for my students i would put it you know be the first or second question on the exam because that's where you try to build up the confidence of your students you give them the easy questions first and the hard stuff comes later so you know this is exactly what i'm talking about when i say renewed carnage when we talk about removing income support from the economy at the same time that a lot of the you know deferrals the the moratorium on rent student loan debt when we told people and the federal government said you know what hang on to that money don't send it in right now don't pay that rent don't worry about the mortgage don't worry about the student loan debt they didn't say don't worry about it forever they said it's building up on you right we're going to defer those payments but but at some point the bills come due and so the bills are coming due at the end of the year many of those programs those uh the moratorium expire meanwhile the income support isn't there so you have this toxic combination of the bills are due and where is the income to make good on all those payments so this is uh this is really the easy question we all know exactly how this ends it ends the way you said if people start missing payments you get a cascading wave of defaults and you have the real risk that this economic crisis can start to lead over into the financial system and then we're dealing with a whole different kind of crisis on top of the health crisis and the economic crisis we're already facing.

msnbc :

i should note some welcome news today that betsy devos did announce that they will continue the forbearance on on those uh student debt payments uh for a bit longer they extended that the the the big obstacle here and we saw it you know when republicans basically when nancy pelosi and the house democrats pass that bill right the senate republican caucus said we don't like it we don't need more money and also we haven't talked about the deficit in years but we've now rediscovered it as an issue and we really think it's a real problem i have also noticed a real shift in the center of the conversation across the ideological spectrum at a time of record low interest rates and unprecedented challenge for the macroeconomy on the deficit that that that you have people who even back during the great recession we're starting to get a little nervous saying this is not the time we need massive support have you seen the same thing.

kelton:

oh yes i have i mean i think that you know academic economists are definitely shifting uh the the positions that they're taking this time look very different from where we were let's say a decade ago when we were fighting against the great recession so everyone understands chris that this economy is not going to recover people like jerome powell the fed chairman is telling congress is telling the world we don't have this we do not have the tools to lay a foundation for a sustainable robust economic recovery without our fiscal partners that means the white house that means congress that means we're going to have to have fiscal support and that's going to mean deficits for a prolonged period of time you got to keep the fiscal support in place until the economy is strong enough to stand on its own.

msnbc :

stephanie kelton uh who has been a sort of prophet i think on this particular point uh and who's watched the consensus move towards her particularly since the great recession luckily let's hope it holds uh into the future stephanie thank you very much thank you so much chris next what happens when leaders

景気回復には何が必要なのでしょうか。ステファニー・ケルトン氏は民主党上院予算委員会の元チーフエコノミストで、現在はストニーブルック大学の経済学・公共政策の教授を務めています。

ケルトン

  それは、この経済がスローモーションの列車の大破の真っ只中にあるということを、私たちが認識していたことの更なる証拠だからだと思います。 景気回復の形をした景気回復にはすでに問題がありました みんなを巻き込めていないという意味で 今は景気回復が二分され、不均等な状態になっていることがわかりました 景気回復は減速し始めています これから先にあるのは本当に経済の大惨事の再来であることがわかります

msnbc .

経済をシャットダウンして再開しようとするとどうなるか、というようなマクロの試験問題のようなものです。

ケルトン

  私が学生の試験にこれを出すとしたら、試験の第一問か第二問にするでしょうね。経済からの所得支援と同時に、多くの人が延期を知っているように、家賃の学生ローン債務のモラトリアムは、私たちが人々に言ったとき、連邦政府は人々に言ったのですが、そのお金を今すぐに送金するな、家賃を払うな、住宅ローンの心配をするな、学生ローンの借金の心配をするな、永遠に心配するなとは言わなかったのです。支払いを延期することになっていますが、ある時点で請求書の期限が迫っていますので、年末には多くのプログラムが期限切れとなります。これは本当に簡単な質問ですが.........どうやって終わるかは誰もが知っていることですが..........支払いが滞っている人が増えれば.......デフォルトの波が押し寄せ、経済危機が金融システムにまで波及する危険性があります。

msnbc .

今日は歓迎すべきニュースがあります。ベッツィー・デボス氏が学生の借金返済をもう少しの間延期すると発表しました。今は問題として再発見されました 本当に問題だと思っています 記録的な低金利と マクロ経済の前例のない 赤字問題への挑戦の時期に 思想的なスペクトルを超えて 話し合いの中心が 変わってきていることにも気付きました 大不況の時でさえも

ケルトン

経済学の専門家たちは、間違いなく立場を変えてきていると思います。今回、彼らが取っている立場は、10年前の大不況と戦っていた時とは大きく異なっています。財政パートナーがいなければ 持続可能な力強い経済回復の基礎を築くことはできません ホワイトハウスや議会が財政支援をしなければなりません 長期的に赤字が続くことになります 経済が自立できるほど強くなるまで 財政支援を継続しなければなりません

msnbc.

ステファニー・ケルトン氏は、この点では一種の預言者のような存在で、特に大不況以降、コンセンサスが彼女に向かっていくのを見守ってきました。

www.DeepL.com/Translator（無料版）で翻訳しました。

https://youtu.be/GPeWoLHnsuk

.@StephanieKelton is right: we're facing a toxic combination of bills due with no income support to make those payments. The little aid we've given Americans is about to expire and Congress has yet to pass a stimulus package.

Time has run out. Americans need immediate relief. pic.twitter.com/TFThXFnT9F

— Joe Sanberg (@JosephNSanberg) December 5, 2020

This is an economy on the verge of renewed carnage. We need *substantial* relief now. Whatever we get won’t be nearly enough. Congress needs to stand ready to provide ongoing support, as needed, come January. https://t.co/WCrQ4ybpQA

— Stephanie Kelton (@StephanieKelton) December 5, 2020

	Stephanie Kelton ⁦‪@StephanieKelton‬⁩ This is an economy on the verge of renewed carnage. We need *substantial* relief now. Whatever we get won't be nearly enough. Congress needs to stand ready to provide ongoing support, as needed, come January.   2020/12/05 11:42

https://twitter.com/stephaniekelton/status/1335051830326398977?s=21

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