2021年3月19日金曜日

2021/03/19ケルトン教授 Bloomberg TVさんのツイート

2021/03/19ケルトン教授 Bloomberg TVさんのツイート

 https://twitter.com/goethe_chan/status/1373328682761158657?s=21


Conversation

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水着ゲーテ(セイバー)
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/Goethe-chan/歌德小姐
@goethe_chan
ブルームバーグにケルトンが登場。 バイデン政権の経済支援策に対するインフレ懸念を否定。人々が普段行なっている家賃やローン等の支出を継続させるための支援だ。家計がこれまでの支出を続けられるようにするだけなのに、サマーズが懸念するような物価の全体的な上昇が起きるわけがないだろうと。
Quote Tweet
Bloomberg TV
@BloombergTV
·
"I don't think we are looking at the kind of deficit spending that puts us at risk of a move up in inflation that becomes entrenched." @StephanieKelton talks about deficits with @TheStalwart @CarolineHydeTV & @romainebostick Kelton on Odd Lots podcast
➡
 trib.al/CzcZzEl
3:35
16K views
2:40 AM · Mar 21, 2021Twitter for iPad



https://twitter.com/bloombergtv/status/1373322645194743809?s=21


Bloomberg TV
@BloombergTV
"I don't think we are looking at the kind of deficit spending that puts us at risk of a move up in inflation that becomes entrenched."
@StephanieKelton
talks about deficits with
@TheStalwart
@CarolineHydeTV
&
@romainebostick
Kelton on Odd Lots podcast
➡
 trib.al/CzcZzEl
3:39
16K views
2:16 AM · Mar 21, 2021SocialFlow



Not Concerned About Current Deficit Cycle: Stephanie Kelton - Bloomberg
2021/03/19
6:19



C:
The MMT School of Thought often says the limit to deficit or government spending really is inflation real resources. Some 
argue we're seeing that we're seeing bottlenecks emerge. We've seen oil prices rally up until today. We just saw Nike coming 
out and saying they're having issues with their supply chain. Why should we not look at this and worry that perhaps this is a 
sign that fiscal policymakers are pressing too hard. 
Kelton:
Well the kind of inflation that somebody like Larry Summers has 
worried about openly. Right. When he talks about overheating he's really thinking about generalized increases in prices where 
essentially you just have too much fiscal stimulus you got too much money in people's hands they run out into the economy and 
they try to spend all of that money and the productive capacity of the economy the ability to meet all of that demand and with 
higher supply just isn't there. That's very different from these localized instances where we have some issues with supply chains 
and bottlenecks and so forth. So there are different kinds of price pressures. But what we're not seeing and what most 
economists don't expect us to be seeing or confronting anytime is the kind of generalised price increases that somebody like 
Larry Summers has been worried about. Your own Palos is clearly not worried about that kind of inflation. 

C:
Yeah definitely not. 
And when we talk about I mean he's part of the pushback that we've seen on MMT or things that maybe try to mimic it is this 
idea of deficit spending. I'm curious though I mean we've gone through I guess what could be considered to be a pretty long 
deficit cycle now. We haven't had inflation at least not meaningful inflation above any sort of target rate set by 
policymakers here. Is there any reason at all in your mind that we should worry about the current state of the deficit cycle 
that we might be on now and how that might actually affect inflation. 


Kelton:
No I don't think that the deficit cycle as you're describing it that we're on now is cause for concern with respect to the kind 
of inflation that's somebody who's worried about getting this stuff entrenched right. An inflationary cycle where price 
increases become entrenched and you get you know year over year increases in prices. I don't see that. What we have is fiscal 
support. That is mostly about supporting incomes. Right. Helping workers who lost their jobs continue to spend what they were 
spending pay their utilities pay their rent buy food helping small businesses keep workers on payroll. Those people were 
already being paid helping state and local governments keep essential workers paid. So so much of the spending that you know 
is being supported through these deficits is just a continuation of the kind of spending people are doing. Now there is a bit of 
potential for some stimulus. Some of those fourteen hundred checks will go into the hands of somebody who will turn around 
and spend money they wouldn't have otherwise spent. And to the extent that they buy goods and services that gives a little bit 
of a boost to the economy. But most of these provisions are temporary. This stuff runs out toward the end of the year. So no 
I don't think we're looking at the kind of deficit spending that puts us at risk of a move up in inflation that becomes 
entrenched. 

W:
Professor what point do you worry about what's being encompassed 
by inflation though as well. Because for many food is getting more expensive. I make an age old argument. But education is 
more expensive. We're seeing house prices making livings more expensive. Is any of this a worry to you in terms of not being 
encapsulated by the data. 

Kelton:
Yeah I mean those are considerations and concerns for sure but 
this many of these things have been happening for a long period of time. Education for example education costs have been 
increasing pretty significantly year over year for many years. Same thing with housing. Housing prices have been increasing so 
separate and apart from corona virus and the deficit spending to support the economy. There are no issues facing families when it 
comes to affordability of food and housing and education and those sorts of things. We need different policies to tackle 
those problems. 

C:
Stephanie what's next. So we're just looking at this massive fiscal expansion the likes of which we did not see 
in other recessions or downturns or crises. Let's say we get back to something resembling normal. Where does the project go 
next. What should what do you want to push for. What do you want to see governments do. Even after we're out of the ceiling 
crisis economics.

Kelton:
 I think that President Biden has made it pretty clear that he 
considers this one point nine trillion dollar package in his words a downpayment. So he is not done by a long shot. The 
Democrats and this administration intend to come back. They're looking at potentially trillions of dollars more. We've even 
heard people like Senator Manchin use numbers as high as four trillion. Talking about the Biden build back better agenda. So 
Joe I mean this administration I do believe wants to see not just a bridge to the other side of Corona virus but the 
foundations for a sustainable ending inclusive recovery. Right. And getting infrastructure and education out of other things in 
place. 

C:
So when we talk about the sustainable recovery a lot of talk is about jobs themselves. What about wages. Are we going to 
start to see any sort of meaningful increase in wages as an outgrowth of these policies. 

Kelton:
 
Maybe so. And I know that that's what the Fed would like to see. I mean we were making some progress there. You get the labor 
market very very tight and you do begin to see some move up in wages especially at the bottom which is exactly what Chairman 
Powell has said. He he hopes that we will get to the point where the labor market does again get tight enough to produce that 
kind of wage pressure. But of course Congress can do something about that as well. And they didn't manage to get an increase in 
the federal minimum wage in the last package. But clearly there is a desire to come back and make another run at this and try to 
get the federal minimum wage up. And that would have some benefit to low and lower income workers whose wages would also 
rise.

C:
MMT流の考え方では、赤字や政府支出の限界は、実際にはインフレによる実質的な資源であるとよく言われます。ある人は、ボトルネックが発生していると主張します。今日まで原油価格が上昇してきました。ナイキがサプライチェーンに問題を抱えていると発表しました。これを見て、もしかしたら財政政策立案者が過剰に圧力をかけている兆候ではないかと心配してはどうでしょうか。

ケルトン
ラリー・サマーズのような人が公然と心配しているようなインフレですね。そうですね。ラリー・サマーズが過熱について語るとき、彼が実際に考えているのは、全般的な物価上昇のことです。本質的には、財政刺激が強すぎて、人々の手にお金がありすぎて、経済の中に飛び出して、そのお金をすべて使おうとするのですが、経済の生産能力、つまり需要と供給の増加をすべて満たす能力は、そこにはないのです。これは、サプライチェーンやボトルネックなどの問題があるような、局所的な事例とは全く異なります。つまり、価格圧力の種類は異なるということです。しかし、私たちが目にしていないもの、そしてほとんどのエコノミストが私たちがいつでも目にしたり直面したりすると予想していないものは、Larry Summersのような誰かが心配しているような一般的な価格上昇です。あなたのPalosは明らかにその種のインフレを心配していません。

C:
ええ、絶対に違います。 
また、MMTやそれを真似ようとするものに対して、彼が反発している部分は、赤字支出という考え方です。不思議なのは、私たちはかなり長い赤字のサイクルを経験してきたと思われることです。少なくとも、政策立案者が設定したある種の目標レートを上回るような意味のあるインフレは起きていません。現在の赤字サイクルの状況と、それが実際にインフレにどう影響するかを心配すべき理由はあるのでしょうか。


ケルトン
あなたがおっしゃるように、現在の赤字サイクルは、この問題をしっかりと解決しようとする人が心配するような、ある種のインフレに関しては、心配する必要はないと思います。物価上昇が定着して、毎年のように物価が上昇するようなインフレサイクル。私にはそうは見えません。今あるのは財政支援です。それは主に所得を支えるためのものです。そうですね。失業した労働者がそれまで使っていたお金を使い続けられるように、光熱費や家賃を払ったり、食べ物を買ったりできるように、中小企業が労働者の給与を維持できるように支援します。これらの人々にはすでに給料が支払われていました。州政府や地方自治体が必要な労働者の給料を維持するための支援です。このように、赤字によって支えられている支出の多くは、人々が行っている種類の支出の継続にすぎないのです。しかし、少しばかりの刺激を与える可能性もあります。1400枚の小切手の一部は誰かの手に渡り、その人は他では使わなかったお金を使うことになります。そして、その人たちが商品やサービスを購入することで、経済が少しだけ活性化されるのです。しかし、これらの条項のほとんどは一時的なものです。年末には期限切れになってしまいます。ですから、インフレ率が上昇して定着してしまうようなリスクを伴うような赤字支出にはならないと思います。

W:
教授は、何がインフレに包含されるのかを心配していますか？というのも、多くの人にとって食べ物はより高価になっているからです。昔から言われていることですが。しかし、教育費も高くなっています。家の値段も高くなり、生活費も高くなっています。これらがデータに含まれていないという点で、心配されていますか？

ケルトン
でも、これらのことは長い期間にわたって起こってきたことです。例えば、教育費は何年も前から前年比で大幅に増加しています。住宅についても同様です。コロナ・ウィルスや、経済を支えるための赤字支出とは別に、住宅価格は上昇しています。食費や住宅費、教育費など、家庭が抱える問題はありません。それらの問題に取り組むためには、異なる政策が必要です。

C:
ステファニー次は何だ。私たちは、他の不況や下降、危機では見られなかったような大規模な財政拡大を見ているわけです。仮に通常の状態に戻ったとしましょう。このプロジェクトは次にどこへ向かうのか。あなたは何をすべきか、何を推進したいか。政府には何をしてもらいたいか。経済学的には天井知らずの危機から抜け出した後も。

ケルトン
 バイデン大統領は、彼の言葉を借りれば、この1兆9,000億円のパッケージを頭金と考えていることを明確にしていると思います。つまり、まだ終わっていないということです。民主党とこの政権は、また戻ってくるつもりです。民主党とこの政権は、さらに何兆ドルもの資金を投入する可能性があると見ています。マンチン上院議員のように、4兆ドルという数字を使う人もいるようです。バイデン・ビルドバック・ベター・アジェンダ（Biden Build Back Better Agenda）と呼ばれています。つまり、ジョー......この政権は、コロナウイルスの向こう側への橋だけではなく、持続可能で包括的な復興のための基盤を求めているのだと思います。そうですね。そして、インフラや教育など、さまざまなものを整備していきます。

C:
持続可能な復興について語るとき、多くの場合、雇用そのものについて語られます。賃金はどうでしょう。これらの政策の成果として、意味のある賃金の上昇が見られるようになるのでしょうか。

ケルトン
 
そうかもしれません。FRBがそれを望んでいることはわかっています。つまり、私たちはそこそこの成果を上げていたのです。労働市場が非常にタイトになり、特に底辺層の賃金が上昇し始めていますが、これはまさにPowell議長が言っていることです。パウエル議長は、労働市場が再び十分にタイトになり、そのような賃金圧力を生み出す段階に到達することを期待しています。しかし、もちろん議会もそれに対して何かできるはずです。前回の法案では、連邦政府の最低賃金を上げることができませんでした。しかし、もう一度、連邦最低賃金の引き上げを実現したいという声は明らかにあります。そうすれば、低所得の労働者の賃金が上がるというメリットがあります。


  The MMT School of Thought often says the limit to deficit or government spending really is inflation real resources. Some argue we're seeing that we're seeing bottlenecks emerge. We've seen oil prices rally up until today. We just saw Nike coming out and saying they're having issues with their supply chain. Why should we not look at this and worry that perhaps this is a sign that fiscal policymakers are pressing too hard. Well the kind of inflation that somebody like Larry Summers has worried about openly. Right. When he talks about overheating he's really thinking about generalized increases in prices where essentially you just have too much fiscal stimulus you got too much money in people's hands they run out into the economy and they try to spend all of that money and the productive capacity of the economy the ability to meet all of that demand and with * 00:54
higher supply just isn't there. That's very different from these localized instances where we have some issues with supply chains and bottlenecks and so forth. So there are different kinds of price pressures. But what we're not seeing and what most * 01:09
economists don't expect us to be seeing or confronting anytime is the kind of generalised price increases that somebody like * 01:17
Larry Summers has been worried about. Your own Palos is clearly not worried about that kind of inflation. Yeah definitely not. * 01:23
And when we talk about I mean he's part of the pushback that we've seen on MMT or things that maybe try to mimic it is this * 01:29
idea of deficit spending. I'm curious though I mean we've gone through I guess what could be considered to be a pretty long * 01:35
deficit cycle now. We haven't had inflation at least not meaningful inflation above any sort of target rate set by * 01:41
policymakers here. Is there any reason at all in your mind that we should worry about the current state of the deficit cycle * 01:48
that we might be on now and how that might actually affect inflation. * 01:54
No I don't think that the deficit cycle as you're describing it that we're on now is cause for concern with respect to the kind * 02:02
of inflation that's somebody who's worried about getting this stuff entrenched right. An inflationary cycle where price * 02:10
increases become entrenched and you get you know year over year increases in prices. I don't see that. What we have is fiscal * 02:18
support. That is mostly about supporting incomes. Right. Helping workers who lost their jobs continue to spend what they were * 02:27
spending pay their utilities pay their rent buy food helping small businesses keep workers on payroll. Those people were * 02:34
already being paid helping state and local governments keep essential workers paid. So so much of the spending that you know * 02:41
is being supported through these deficits is just a continuation of the kind of spending people are doing. Now there is a bit of * 02:49
potential for some stimulus. Some of those fourteen hundred checks will go into the hands of somebody who will turn around * 02:56
and spend money they wouldn't have otherwise spent. And to the extent that they buy goods and services that gives a little bit * 03:02
of a boost to the economy. But most of these provisions are temporary. This stuff runs out toward the end of the year. So no * 03:09
I don't think we're looking at the kind of deficit spending that puts us at risk of a move up in inflation that becomes * 03:17
entrenched. Professor what point do you worry about what's being encompassed * 03:23
by inflation though as well. Because for many food is getting more expensive. I make an age old argument. But education is * 03:30
more expensive. We're seeing house prices making livings more expensive. Is any of this a worry to you in terms of not being * 03:36
encapsulated by the data. Yeah I mean those are considerations and concerns for sure but * 03:43
this many of these things have been happening for a long period of time. Education for example education costs have been * 03:49
increasing pretty significantly year over year for many years. Same thing with housing. Housing prices have been increasing so * 03:57
separate and apart from corona virus and the deficit spending to support the economy. There are no issues facing families when it * 04:06
comes to affordability of food and housing and education and those sorts of things. We need different policies to tackle * 04:12
those problems. Stephanie what's next. So we're just looking at this massive fiscal expansion the likes of which we did not see * 04:19
in other recessions or downturns or crises. Let's say we get back to something resembling normal. Where does the project go * 04:28
next. What should what do you want to push for. What do you want to see governments do. Even after we're out of the ceiling * 04:34
crisis economics. I think that President Biden has made it pretty clear that he * 04:40
considers this one point nine trillion dollar package in his words a downpayment. So he is not done by a long shot. The * 04:48
Democrats and this administration intend to come back. They're looking at potentially trillions of dollars more. We've even * 04:55
heard people like Senator Manchin use numbers as high as four trillion. Talking about the Biden build back better agenda. So * 05:03
Joe I mean this administration I do believe wants to see not just a bridge to the other side of Corona virus but the * 05:11
foundations for a sustainable ending inclusive recovery. Right. And getting infrastructure and education out of other things in * 05:20
place. So when we talk about the sustainable recovery a lot of talk is about jobs themselves. What about wages. Are we going to * 05:27
start to see any sort of meaningful increase in wages as an outgrowth of these policies. * 05:33
Maybe so. And I know that that's what the Fed would like to see. I mean we were making some progress there. You get the labor * 05:39
market very very tight and you do begin to see some move up in wages especially at the bottom which is exactly what Chairman * 05:48
Powell has said. He he hopes that we will get to the point where the labor market does again get tight enough to produce that * 05:55
kind of wage pressure. But of course Congress can do something about that as well. And they didn't manage to get an increase in * 06:02
the federal minimum wage in the last package. But clearly there is a desire to come back and make another run at this and try to * 06:10
get the federal minimum wage up. And that would have some benefit to low and lower income workers whose wages would also * 06:17
rise. https://twitter.com/bloombergtv/status/1372692072445194243?s=21

iPhoneから送信
well the kind of inflation that somebody like larry summers has uh worried about openly right when he talks about overheating he's really thinking about generalized increases in prices where essentially you just have too much fiscal stimulus you got too much money in people's hands they run out into the economy and they try to spend all of that money and the productive capacity of the economy the ability to meet all of that demand with higher supply just isn't there that's very different from these localized instances where we have some issues with supply chains and bottlenecks and so forth so there are different kinds of price pressures but what we're not seeing uh and what most economists don't expect us to be seeing or confronting any time is the kind of generalized price increases that somebody like larry summers has been worried about jerome powell is clearly not worried about that kind of inflation.

yeah definitely not and when we talk about i mean part of the pushback that we've seen on mmt or things that maybe try to mimic it is this idea of deficit spending i'm curious though and we've gone through i guess what could be considered to be a pretty long deficit cycle now we haven't had inflation at least not meaningful inflation above any sort of uh target rate set by policy makers here is there any reason at all in your mind that we should worry about the current state of the deficit cycle that we might be on now and how that might actually affect inflation.

kelton：
no i i don't think that the deficit cycle as you're describing it that we're on now is cause for concern with respect to the kind of inflation that somebody who's worried about getting this stuff entrenched right an inflationary cycle where price increases become entrenched and you get you know year over year uh increases in prices i don't see that what we have is fiscal support that is mostly about supporting incomes right helping workers who lost their jobs continue to spend what they were spending pay their utilities pay their rent buy food helping small businesses keep workers on payroll those people were already being paid helping state and local governments keep essential workers paid so so much of the spending that you know is being supported through these deficits is just a continuation of the kind of spending people are already doing now there is a bit of potential for some stimulus some of those 1400 checks will go into the hands of somebody who will turn around and spend money they wouldn't have otherwise spent.
and to the extent that they will buy goods and services that gives a little bit of a boost to the economy but most of these provisions are temporary this stuff runs out toward the end of the year.
so no i don't think we're looking at the kind of deficit spending that puts us at risk of a move up in inflation that becomes entrenched.

W ：
professor at what point do you worry about what's being encompassed by inflation though as well because for many food is getting more expensive i make an age-old argument but education is more expensive we're seeing house prices making livings more expensive is any of this a worry to you in terms of not being encapsulated by the data.

kelton：
 yeah i mean those are considerations and concerns for sure but this many of these things have been happening for a long period of time education for example education costs have been increasing pretty significantly year over year for many years same thing with housing housing prices have been increasing so separate and apart from coronavirus and the deficit spending to support the economy there are you know issues facing families when it comes to affordability of food and housing and education and those sorts of things we need different policies to tackle those problems.



ラリー・サマーズのような人が心配しているのは、明らかなインフレです。彼が過熱について語るとき、彼が実際に考えているのは、全般的な物価上昇です。本質的には、財政刺激が強すぎて、人々の手にお金がありすぎて、経済に出て行って、そのお金を全部使おうとすると、経済の生産能力、つまり供給を増やして需要を全部満たす能力がないということです。これは、サプライチェーンやボトルネックなどの問題が発生するような局所的な事例とは全く異なるものです。

mmtやそれを真似ようとするものに反発しているのは、赤字支出という考え方だと思います。

ケルトン：
あなたが言うように、現在の赤字サイクルは、物価上昇が定着して、年々物価が上昇するようなインフレに関しては、懸念すべきではないと思います。私たちが行っているのは、主に所得を支えるための財政支援であり、失業した労働者がそれまで使っていたお金を引き続き使えるようにすることです。支出の多くは、人々がすでに行っている種類の支出の継続にすぎません。しかし、多少の刺激の可能性はあります。
そして、その人たちが商品やサービスを購入することで、経済が少しだけ活性化されるのです。
ですから、インフレ率が上昇して定着してしまうようなリスクを伴うような赤字支出にはならないと思います。

W ：
多くの人にとって食費は高くなっていますし、昔から言われていることですが、教育費も高くなっていますし、住宅価格も高くなっています。

kelton：
  コロナウイルスや経済を支えるための赤字支出とは別に、食費や住宅費、教育費など、家庭が直面する問題がありますので、これらの問題に対処するためのさまざまな政策が必要です。




ラリー・サマーズのような人が公然と心配しているようなインフレは、彼が過熱について語るとき、実際には一般的な物価上昇について考えています。本質的には、財政刺激が強すぎて、人々の手にお金がありすぎて、経済に出て行って、そのお金を全部使おうとすると、経済の生産能力が足りなくなって、供給が増えて需要を全部満たすことができなくなるというものです。これは、サプライチェーンやボトルネックなどの問題が発生する局所的な事例とは全く異なりますので、様々な種類の価格圧力があります。ラリー・サマーズが心配していたような一般的な物価上昇ではありません。 ジェローム・パウエルは明らかにそのようなインフレを心配していません。現在、かなり長い赤字サイクルと考えられていますが、少なくとも政策当局が設定した目標レートを上回るような意味のあるインフレは起きていません。あなたが言うように、現在の赤字サイクルは、物価上昇が定着して、年々物価が上昇するようなインフレサイクルになることを心配している人にとっては、心配の種になると思います。失業した労働者がそれまで使っていた光熱費や家賃を引き続き使えるようにしたり、食べ物を買えるようにしたり、中小企業が労働者に給料を払い続けられるようにしたり、州や地方自治体が必要な労働者に給料を払い続けられるようにしたり、このような赤字によって支えられている支出の多くは このように、赤字によって支えられている支出の多くは、人々がすでに行っている支出の継続に過ぎません。 しかし、1400枚の小切手の一部が誰かの手に渡り、その人たちが他の方法では使わなかったお金を使い、商品やサービスを購入することで、経済を少しだけ活性化させる可能性があります。しかし、これらの条項のほとんどは一時的なもので、年末にはなくなってしまいます。ですから、インフレ率が上昇して定着してしまうようなリスクを伴うような赤字支出にはならないと思います。 しかし、これらの多くは長期間にわたって起こっています。 例えば、教育費は何年も前から前年比で大幅に増加しています。

コロナウイルスや経済支援のための赤字支出とは別に、食費や住宅費、教育費など、家庭が抱える問題があります。これらの問題に対処するために、さまざまな政策が必要です。
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