THE U.S. GDP GAP:WHERE DID IT GO?
Stephanie Kelton
Professor of Economics
University of Missouri, Kansas City
©2015
"Since the trough of the recession in the early summer of 2009...essentially all of the convergence between the economy's level of output and its potential has been achieved not through the economy's growth, but through downward revisions in its potential."
-Larry Summers, 2014
"2009年初夏の不況の谷以来...経済の生産水準と潜在力の収束は、基本的にすべて、経済の成長ではなく、潜在力の下方修正によって達成されてきた。"
-ラリー・サマーズ、2014年
In 2014, actual GDP remained ten percent below its 2007 forecast. Half of that was accommodated into a reduction of potential. The rest remained an estimate of the GDP "gap."
"In other words, through this recovery, we have made no progress in restoring GDP to its potential."
-Larry Summers
2014年、実際のGDPは2007年の予想を10％下回ったままであった。その半分は潜在力の減少に収容された。残りはGDPの "ギャップ "の推定値にとどまった。
"言い換えれば、この回復を通して、我々はGDPを潜在的なものに回復させることに何の進展もなかった。"
-ラリー・サマーズ
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https://twitter.com/stephaniekelton/status/1582781769899995142?s=46&t=jjYS8-U9HqKuOM94cEvwrw
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-19/fed-staff-rethinks-economy-s-speed-limit-portending-more-hikes
Three Hidden Words From Fed Insiders Point to Much Higher Rates
Staff say potential output ‘revised down significantly’ Revisions suggest economy was running hotter than estimated
Fed Officials Reiterate Aggressive Stance
The Federal Reserve’s influential staff judges that under the surface the US economy is running even hotter than they thought, helping to explain why inflation remains at a 40-year high and providing reason to expect even more interest-rate hikes.
Tucked within 12 dense pages describing the Fed’s September policy meeting last week was a statement concerning a seemingly innocuous yet vital estimate that the staff use as a building block for internal economic forecasts.
ーーDownward revisions to potential output are not evidence of an economy that is overheating. Just think back. pic.twitter.com/OuYGtgBhLu
— Stephanie Kelton (@StephanieKelton) October 19, 2022
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