2022/08/11 ケルトンpodcast Best New Ideas in Money: The recession question

2022/08/11 ケルトンpodcast Best New Ideas in Money: The recession question

https://love-and-theft-2014.blogspot.com/2022/08/202208-podcast-best-new-ideas-in-money.html @

	Stephanie Kelton ⁦‪@StephanieKelton‬⁩ Listen as ⁦‪@CharlesPassy‬⁩ and I discuss it all with expert economists, ⁦‪@D_Blanchflower‬⁩ and ⁦‪@Claudia_Sahm‬⁩   2022/08/12 0:52

https://twitter.com/stephaniekelton/status/1557756936971485185?s=21

https://twitter.com/claudia_sahm?s=21  

https://twitter.com/d_blanchflower?s=21

The recession question
Best New Ideas in Money

https://youtu.be/cryI6ZZnzYE

Unemployment is low, but inflation is high, and the U.S. economy has recorded two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. Can the Fed raise interest rates to bring down inflation but avoid pushing the economy into recession? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Apple Podcastでお聴きください: https://podcasts.apple.com/jp/podcast/best-new-ideas-in-money/id1587222768?i=1000575742911

不況の質問

マネーにおける最高の新アイデア

失業率は低いが、インフレ率は高く、米国経済は2四半期連続でGDPの縮小を記録している。FRBは金利を引き上げてインフレ率を下げつつ、景気を後退させることを回避できるのだろうか？広告の選択肢について詳しく知ることができます。megaphone.fm/adchoicesをご覧ください。

K:

[Music] if you're listening to most economists i think the consensus is that there's better than a 50 50 shot the odds are better than 50 50 now that the us economy goes into recession either in 2022 or 2023. welcome to the best new ideas in money a podcast from marketwatch i'm stephanie kelton. 

i'm an economist and a professor of economics and public policy at stony brook university and i'm charles passey a reporter at marketwatch each week we explore innovations in economics finance technology and policy that rethink the way we live work spend save and invest.

M:

 there's been a lot of news about inflation lately and about whether we are entering a recession or whether we've already arrived fortunately it just so happens that i'm sitting right next to somebody who might have some thoughts about that.

K:

 yeah who might that be.

M:

stephanie this has to be one of the most interesting moments in recent memory to be an economist.

K:

 oh you better believe it.

M:

so what are the biggest questions people are asking you these days.

K:

 the first is how is the fed planning to bring down inflation and we all know that the fed has been raising interest rates and that is by and large how the central bank is trying to fight inflation and the big question that's related to that is can the fed raise interest rates bring down inflation and avoid pushing the economy into recession.

M:

 so the risk may be that in trying to solve one problem inflation the federal reserve could create a more serious one?

K:

 the concern is that if the fed is too aggressive with raising interest rates this increases the cost of borrowing for consumers it makes it more expensive to borrow money to buy a home buy a car put things on your credit card if you're a business that relies on borrowing to cover some of your own costs it makes it more expensive to conduct business and what a lot of people are worried about is that the central bank by raising interest rates is going to create a lot of headwinds for the economy that is in a recovery or has been in a recovery and the risk is that the recovery goes from an economic expansion the recovery phase of the business cycle into contraction into the recessionary part of the business cycle.

2:30

M:

 on july 28 the commerce department reported that the us economy shrank for the second quarter in a row.

and two consecutive quarters of negative real gdp growth is the shorthand definition of a recession that means adjusting for inflation the economy is actually starting to produce less.

 stephanie if inflation was the story of the summer recession might be the story of the fall is it possible that we're already in a recession. 

K:

it's possible and there are some very good economists out there who are arguing and have been arguing that the u.s may well have entered a recession in the last part of 2021 or the early part of 2022. so we won't know for sure until the committee that is responsible for telling us officially when the economy goes into recession that's the nber or the national bureau of economic research they will ultimately be the ones to tell us now the funny thing is i mean in a sense it's funny in a sense it's not funny they very often will tell us that we have gone into recession a year or even more than a year after the recession officially started.

M:

 now why is that?

K:

 well because they're looking at a variety of factors and it is a committee decision to look at the economic landscape to try to in a sense read all of the tea leaves and it gets harder the more mixed the economic picture is.

and that's kind of where we are today you have you know a smattering of economic data that look pretty good that point to resilience in the economy in the labor market in retail sales and so forth and then you have to weigh that against where you see some softening.

and say okay things appear to be cooling and housing consumer spending sentiment bad debt write-offs when those start to pick up and you see people starting to miss a few payments businesses starting to worry about the robustness of demand going forward and all that sort of stuff so they're looking at the whole picture and then they have to come together and decide whether and when to call it sufficiently gloomy that it merits giving it the name recession.

M: 

well stephanie i have to ask where do you think we are today?

K:

 would i call this a recession well i gave a talk recently and the subtitle of the talk was the tale of four recessions and i opened with the recession of 2001 followed by the recession of 2007 to 2009 and then the 2020 recession.

the fourth one that story has yet to be written so i put on the slide 202x where the value of x is the question is x 2 is it 20 22 is x 3 20 23.

i think that right now if you're listening to leaders in the business community ceos and others if you're listening to investors if you're listening to most economists i think the consensus is that there's better than a 50 50 shot the odds are better than 50 50 now that the u.s economy goes into recession either in 2022 or 2023. there aren't as many voices saying we're going to completely avoid recession and it's not on the horizon.

 so the question is is x2 or is x3 and it won't surprise me at all to learn that x was 2. when the time comes and nber gives us the official word if they tell us that the economy went into recession this year. i will not be surprised at all.

M:

there seems to be an intense focus on the fed what the fed should do what it shouldn't do but what else are you following?

K:

there's so much attention being paid to the federal reserve and monetary tightening raising interest rates is the fed going to be the one to push the economy into recession.

 i think a lot of people are overlooking the extent to which the other policy lever fiscal policy has been yanked very very hard in the direction of an economic slowdown in other words the spending that was used to support the economy after the pandemic hit and to provide relief and income support and so forth.

 that is all dried up and the deficit is actually falling faster than at any time in u.s history.

we've never had such fiscal contraction before so what you have are the two policy levers monetary policy and fiscal policy both being pulled in a direction of slowdown.

 and so it's not just the fed that we ought to be thinking about in terms of the impact of higher interest rates and the potential for that to create a slowdown and a potential recession but having that work alongside pulling the fiscal lever and slowing things down that way as well so it's that mix of policies that i think a lot of economists see as almost inevitably pushing the economy into recession.

M:

 [Music] how do we know if we're in a recession or not that's after the break stay with us.

[podcast広告]9:16

 [Music] [Music] 

K:

welcome back to the best new ideas in money before the break we talked about two of the major issues in today's economy inflation and growing concern that the united states may be headed toward recession.

M:

stephanie you posed a question at the beginning of the episode can the fed raise interest rates bring down inflation and avoid pushing the economy into a recession all at the same time?

K:

 yeah that's the tricky question that everybody is asking. 

M:

it seems like every week there's a new batch of data data that should shed more light on the dynamics of the present but does that mean we're getting closer to having some definitive answers?

K:

 so there are these fierce disagreements among economists about all of this and on one hand some people will say well it's obvious we're sliding into recession what in the world are the rest of you looking at and others will say wait a minute how can you be so quick to jump to conclusions like look how many jobs we're creating look how low the unemployment rate is our first guest is in that ladder group she's among those who say hang on a minute even though we've had two consecutive quarters of declining real gdp growth it doesn't look like a recession to me.

C:[10:25p][9:42y]

[Music] my name is claudia sam and i am the founder of som consulting and a former federal reserve economist i started the federal reserve right before the financial crisis in 2008.

and my focus was on consumer spending.

K:

sam has been having a lot of conversations lately about whether or not we're in a recession and there's a reason for that.

C:

 i have a recession indicator that was named after me the psalm rule and it is a highly accurate indicator that we are within the beginning of a recession.

K:

 the sum rule is an indicator not a predictor basically when the unemployment rate rises by a certain percentage above the low of the prior year it indicates the economy has entered recession.

C:

 i developed it because it was part of a policy proposal to send out stimulus checks relief checks at the beginning of a recession as it turns out it's gotten a lot more attention lately in its ability to say we're in a recession.

and it's based on the labor market on the unemployment rate and if it's rising and right now the unemployment rate is really low and it's not rising so according to my measure and it's when the white house is cited and many other people have cited we're not in a recession.

M:

 [Music] we'll hear more about why som believes we're not in a recession in a moment but first let's address one of the questions that stephanie posed at the beginning of the episode namely can the fed raise interest rates bring down inflation and avoid pushing the economy into a recession all at the same time.

C:[12:00p]

broadly speaking inflation which is an increase in prices is caused by there being too much demand and too little supply.

 the fed has one tool it's interest rates interest rates are basically the price we pay to borrow whether it's a house whether it's on a credit card they are raising the cost of borrowing.

and by doing so making us a little bit poorer so we don't do that spending.

 and that's what you know is referred to as cooling off demand.

K:

 cooling off demand is one way to try to fight inflation and it's what the fed is currently doing.

C:

 when they cool off demand people buy less stuff that means there's less customers in the store well then the businesses don't need as many workers they get laid off and then they spend less you know so on and so forth now the fed is not trying to cause a recession they're trying to push interest rates up cool demand but not do too much unfortunately the inflation data is kept coming in really strong so the fed keeps pushing and pushing at some point they will break demand like consumers will just pull back that would be a recession okay so that's really bad a recession is really bad it's even worse than inflation by a mile as the economy starts slowing so consumers are spending less businesses are investing less.

 that essentially means for other businesses there are fewer customers.

 if you have fewer customers then you don't need all your workers so then some workers get laid off or even their hours cut your workers get less less take-home pay and then that means when they go out to spend money they're going to cut back.

K:

 it's a domino effect that's not easy to stop.

C:

once this dynamic starts going often people get really worried that they might be the ones to lose their jobs and they pull back so this slow kind of the start of people losing their jobs has feedback effects in terms of less spending and more layoffs and that's how you start small and once it keeps going those feedback effects are very hard to interrupt.

M:

 remember it's the national bureau of economic research or nber that determines whether or not the us economy has entered a recession and although the conventional definition of recession is two consecutive negative quarters of real gdp.

 there is no consensus among economists or everyone else that we're in a recession already for claudia sam focusing on whether or not we're in a recession is missing the point.

C:

 i'm much more worried about are we headed towards a recession and if we think we're headed towards one what are we doing to try to avoid it or preparing for it in ways that we could soften the blow on families and businesses that would really struggle through a recession.

i think that's a much much more important conversation.

K:

when we talk about fighting inflation the focus is often on the fed and the interest rate the fed sets but raising interest rates has other effects and the fed isn't the only player in the game and more to the point there are some things like gas prices and food which the fed can't directly influence.

C:

 it has been the case for a long time that people believe that the fed is the only game in town on inflation .

their mandates are priced ability and maximum employment so that price stability is about keeping inflation from not getting too high the fed thinks it should be around two percent the fed absolutely has a responsibility for inflation.

that does not mean that no one else can help out.

after the great recession it wasn't too long before the fed was like it the congress stepped away and that that was a real problem that was a very slow and painful recovery and i've heard president biden like it has come out of his mouth gas prices are high food prices are high the fed's got this they're going to fight inflation.

 and i really like i gasped because these are exactly the two things the fed can't fight and also like we shouldn't be expecting them to do it all.

 this time in particular because probably about a half or more of the inflation we have right now is due to supply disruptions not enough supply because of covet or because of ukraine and that's exactly the kind of inflation the fed can't fight congress has the ability to do things to address inflation.

the fed doesn't have to go it alone.

K:

 over the next few months it may become clearer whether we've entered are heading into or managing to avoid a recession what will claudia be looking for?

C:

 what am i going to be watching everything truly the way i was trained particularly the federal reserve as an economist every scrap of data is important.

 i always joke the federal reserve was like the hoover vacuum of data the other thing.

 that i do which is somewhat unique for a macro economist is i try to listen to people i respect the fact that given my training and a phd and hanging out with hundreds of economists at the federal reserve that i don't always have that connection to the real world.

and honestly that's really important for the work.

more to the point i think of your question really at the top of my list is looking at what's happening in the labor market if it's weakening and in what ways it's weakening if it's just job postings get pulled down and so people have fewer options and they can't move around as much that can be problematic for workers but that's very different than losing your job.

so i think that's the space that i'm most interested in is everything that touches workers and their opportunities and what's happening in terms of employment that's my big focus.

 and i have a feeling that focus is going to be a lot harder to stomach over the coming months.

M:

 earlier in the episode stephanie mentioned that the committee at nber which determines whether or not the u.s economy is in a recession could announce that a recession began long after it did begin meaning that in 2023 for example the committee could date the beginning of the recession to 2022.

K:

 if the numbers indicate recession of course.

M:

 david blanchflower a professor of economics at dartmouth college aims to determine whether or not we're in a recession before it actually happens blanchflower previously sat on the monetary policy committee at the bank of england the british central bank.

B:

so what you want to do is try and predict what it is that causes the recession date later to be called by the nbr and the answer is collapse consumer confidence that's the variable that predicts it has two great characteristics.

 it predicts six of the last six and it also doesn't give you a false positive so there aren't examples where it calls recessions that the nbr doesn't call so obviously things may change and there's lots of different stuff that's going on but if you had to pick a single variable that would be the one you should pick and at the moment it looks that they will call recession and they'll probably call it and the start of 2022. 

K:

so yes you heard that right blanchflower thinks we're already in a recession he prefers consumer confidence data to unemployment because unemployment is a lagging indicator in other words by the time you see the unemployment rate starting to rise the recession is already underway consumer confidence data on the other hand can pick up turbulence in the economy much earlier as consumers begin to sour on the economy.

B:

well unemployment doesn't move until generally after their actual date of recession the benefit of these variables these consumer confidence data so we look back at 2007 by april may 2007 the data were predicting that recession was coming.

K:

 the nber would eventually announce that the recession began in december of 2007.

 so our consumers meaning all of us the best predictors of recession.

B:

so the first thing is if consumers fear for what's happening in the economy what do they do they worry about the price of goods rising they worry they're going to lose their jobs so what they do they stop spending.

 the second thing is we have evidence on what i call the economics of walking about which is actually people know about what's happening in the world better than policy makers or economic forecasters so when you say to them what do you think is going to happen to unemployment in 12 months.

 they're actually really good at predicting it they're better than economists are they better than forecasters are and why well because they know what's going on in their local communities they know what's happening to hiring on the streets so if you ask people what do you think is going to happen to unemployment.

 firstly they seem to know but if they think unemployment is going to rise that impacts their behavior so the fact that consumer confidence changes if you are fearful of losing your job. if you're fearful that you're not going to have enough money in the future what do you do you hunker down?

K:

 we asked blanchflower what he sees as the strongest argument that the united states is not in a recession.

B:

 the argument that it's different this time and that the labor market's stronger than you think and these data are not predictive and that there will be a soft landing i cannot prove that that's wrong.

 it could be that the consumer confidence data are not that good and that we will not know that if we go into a recession it will be a relatively shallow one.

M:

with that said planche flower is a firm believer in consumer sentiment as an accurate predictor of recession we asked claudia sam whether she thought the consumer sentiment data was so decisive.

C:

 i respect that data it's one of the few cases where i feel like people i mean this is in a survey but they're given the opportunity to talk to us macro economists.

these are people answering questions about their financial conditions what do they think they're answering this question where's the economy going right and i think it's very important for those of us who are professional forecasters to listen to or at least consider the views of people who are professionals in living in the real world so i think there's a lot of use in the sentiment survey i also know having worked with it in my policy work at the fed the data sometimes are a little you got to be a little careful interpreting them you know people say the darndest things and it can pick up a lot of how we feel about the world in addition to how we feel about our finances with using consumer sentiment we were in recessionary or headed to recessionary territory last summer.

 we've had a year of bad sentiment getting worse and we're not in a recession.

 so i don't know i mean we have really high gas prices people don't like high gas prices.

 we have had a pandemic a war in europe we have a lot of partisan politics voters aren't happy you've layered all that on and it's in there that they're unhappy about the economy and inflation there's more there absolutely has to be more in there so i think it's been kind of faking us out a little bit.

but the world is bad and i do think the risks of recessions have risen a lot.

K:

 thanks for listening to the best new ideas and money.

you can subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts and if you like what you heard please leave us a rating or review and if you have ideas for future episodes drop us a line at best new ideas and money at marketwatch.com.

thanks to claudia sam david blanchflower and mark blott to learn more about recessions head to marketwatch.com i'm stephanie kelton.

M:

and i'm charles passi the best new ideas and money is a podcast from marketwatch melissa hagerty is the executive producer and the producers are katie ferguson metalluzoft and michael mcdowell the associate producer for best case studios is hana leibowitz lockhart additional editing help from will stanton jeremy binks is our news editor and tim roston is the executive editor for market watch.

the best new ideas and money theme was composed by sam retzer.

stephanie kelton is an economist and a professor of economics and public policy at stony brook university and not part of the marketwatch newsroom we'll be back next week with another new idea. [Music]

失業率は低いですが、インフレ率は高く、米国経済は 2 四半期連続で GDP の縮小を記録しています。連邦準備制度理事会は金利を引き上げてインフレを引き下げ、経済を不況に陥らせることを避けることができますか? 広告の選択について詳しくは、こちらをご覧ください。megaphone.fm/adchoices にアクセスしてください

Apple Podcastでお聴きください: https://podcasts.apple.com/jp/podcast/best-new-ideas-in-money/id1587222768?i=1000575742911

不況の質問

マネーにおける最高の新アイデア

失業率は低いが、インフレ率は高く、米国経済は2四半期連続でGDPの縮小を記録している。FRBは金利を引き上げてインフレ率を下げつつ、景気を後退させることを回避できるのだろうか？広告の選択肢について詳しく知ることができます。megaphone.fm/adchoicesをご覧ください。

[音楽] ほとんどのエコノミストの話を聞いているなら、2022 年か 2023 年に米国経済が不況に陥る今、50 50 よりも良い可能性があるというのがコンセンサスだと思います。最高の新しいものへようこそアイデア・イン・マネー マーケットウォッチのポッドキャスト 私はステファニー・ケルトンです。 

私は経済学者であり、ストーニー ブルック大学の経済学と公共政策の教授であり、私はマーケットウォッチのレポーターであるチャールズ パッシーです。私たちは毎週、私たちの生き方を再考する経済金融技術と政策を探求しています。

 最近、インフレに関するニュースがたくさんあり、景気後退に入っているのか、それともすでに景気後退に陥っているのかについてのニュースがたくさんあります.たまたま、私はそのことについて考えているかもしれない誰かのすぐ隣に座っています.

 ええ、それは誰かもしれません。

stephanie これは、経済学者としての最近の記憶の中で最も興味深い瞬間の 1 つに違いありません。

 ああ、信じたほうがいい。

最近、人々があなたに尋ねる最大の質問は何ですか。

 1 つ目は、FRB がどのようにインフレを引き下げる計画を立てているかということです。FRB が金利を引き上げていることは誰もが知っています。それは概して、中央銀行がどのようにインフレと戦おうとしているかということです。これに関連する大きな問題は、連邦準備制度理事会の利上げはインフレを低下させ、経済を不況に追い込むことを回避します。

 つまり、ある問題をインフレで解決しようとすると、連邦準備制度がより深刻な問題を引き起こす可能性があるというリスクがあるのでしょうか?

 懸念されるのは、FRB が利上げに積極的すぎると、消費者の借入コストが増加し、家を購入するためにお金を借りる費用が高くなるということです。多くの人が心配しているのは、中央銀行が金利を引き上げることで、現在の経済に多くの逆風を生み出すことです。回復中または回復中であり、リスクは、回復が景気拡大期から景気循環の回復期に移行し、景気循環期の景気後退局面に移行することです。

2:30

 7 月 28 日に商務省は、米国経済が 2 四半期連続で縮小したと報告しました。

そして、2四半期連続で実質GDP成長率がマイナスになったということは、景気後退の簡単な定義であり、インフレを調整すると、経済が実際には生産量を減らし始めていることを意味します。

 ステファニー インフレが夏の不況の物語だったとしたら、秋の物語かもしれません。 

カ：

それは可能であり、米国が2021年の後半または2022年の前半に不況に突入した可能性が高いと主張している非常に優れたエコノミストがいます。経済が不況に陥ったときに正式に私たちに伝える責任を負う委員会、それは国立経済調査局であり、彼らは最終的に私たちに今私たちに話す人になるでしょう.面白いことに、景気後退が正式に始まってから 1 年または 1 年以上経ってから、景気後退に陥ったとよく言われます。

 今それはなぜですか？

カ：

 彼らはさまざまな要因を検討しており、ある意味ですべての茶葉を読み取ろうとするのは経済情勢を調べる委員会の決定であり、経済状況が複雑になるほど難しくなるからです。

そして、それが今日の私たちの状況です。小売販売などの労働市場における経済の回復力を示す、かなり良好に見える経済データがいくつかあることを知っています。軟化。

消費者支出の感情が冷え込み、不良債権の償却が回復し始め、人々がいくつかの支払いを逃し始めているのを見ると、企業は今後の需要の堅調さについて心配し始めます。彼らは全体像を見ているので、彼らは集まって、それを不況と呼ぶに値するほど十分に暗いと呼ぶべきかどうか、いつそれを呼ぶべきかを決定しなければなりません。

ステファニー、今日はどこにいると思う？

カ：

 これを景気後退と呼べますか? 最近講演を行いましたが、講演のサブタイトルは 4 つの景気後退の話で、2001 年の景気後退で始まり、2007 年から 2009 年の景気後退、そして 2020 年の景気後退が続きました。

4 番目のストーリーはまだ書かれていないので、スライド 202x に置きます。ここで、x の値は質問で、x 2 は 20 22 は x 3 20 23 です。

私は今、ビジネス界のリーダーやCEOなどの意見を聞いているなら、投資家の意見を聞いているなら、ほとんどのエコノミストの意見を聞いているなら、コンセンサスは50 50のショットよりも良いということだと思います。オッズは米国経済が 2022 年または 2023 年に景気後退に陥る現在、50 50 を上回っています。景気後退を完全に回避すると言う声はそれほど多くなく、それは間近に迫っていません。

 問題は x2 または x3 であり、x が 2 であることを知ってもまったく驚かないでしょう。その時が来て、nber が今年経済が不況に陥ったと私たちに告げた場合、公式の言葉を与えてくれます。私はまったく驚かないでしょう。

連邦準備制度理事会は何をすべきか、何をすべきではないかということに強い焦点が当てられているようですが、他に何をフォローしていますか?

カ：

連邦準備制度に非常に多くの注意が払われており、金利を引き上げる金融引き締めは、経済を不況に追い込むものになるでしょう.

 多くの人が、他の政策手段である財政政策が景気減速の方向に非常に大きく引きずり込まれた程度を見過ごしていると思います.救済と所得支援など。

 それはすべて枯渇しており、赤字は実際に私たちの歴史のどの時点よりも速く減少しています.

このような財政収縮はこれまでにないので、金融政策と財政政策の 2 つの政策手段が両方とも減速の方向に引っ張られています。

 したがって、金利上昇の影響と、それが減速と潜在的な景気後退を引き起こす可能性について考える必要があるのはFRBだけではありません。多くのエコノミストがほぼ必然的に経済を不況に追い込むと見ているのは、このような政策の組み合わせだと思います。

 [音楽] 不況に陥っているかどうかはどうすればわかるのでしょうか。それは休憩の後です。

[podcast広告]9:16

 【音楽】 【音楽】 

カ：

休憩前に最高の新しいアイデアに戻って、今日の経済インフレと米国が景気後退に向かっている可能性があるという懸念の2つの主要な問題について話しました.

エピソードの冒頭でステファニーが質問をしましたが、連邦準備制度理事会は金利を上げてインフレを引き下げ、経済を不況に陥らせることを同時に回避できますか?

カ：

 ええ、それは誰もが尋ねているトリッキーな質問です。 

毎週のように、現在のダイナミクスをより明らかにする新しいデータのバッチがあるようですが、それは決定的な答えに近づいていることを意味しますか?

カ：

 このすべてについてエコノミストの間でこれらの激しい意見の不一致があり、一部の人々は、私たちが景気後退に陥っていることは明らかであるとよく言います.すぐに結論を出してください.私たちが生み出している雇用の数を見てください.失業率がどれほど低いかを見てください.私たちの最初のゲストはそのはしごグループに属しています.実質 GDP 成長率の低下は、私には不況のようには見えません。

子：[10:25p,9:25y]

[音楽] 私の名前はクラウディア・サムです。私はソム・コンサルティングの創設者であり、元連邦準備制度のエコノミストです。私は 2008 年の金融危機の直前に連邦準備制度を開始しました。

そして私の焦点は消費者支出にありました。

カ：

サムは最近、私たちが不況に陥っているかどうかについて多くの会話をしていますが、それには理由があります.

子：

 私は、私にちなんで詩篇規則と名付けられた景気後退指標を持っています。これは、景気後退の始まりにあることを示す非常に正確な指標です。

カ：

 サムルールは指標であり、基本的には失業率が前年度の最低水準から一定の割合上昇した場合、経済が景気後退に入ったことを示します。

子：

 私がこれを開発したのは、不況の始まりに刺激小切手と救済小切手を送信するという政策提案の一部だったからです。最近、不況に陥っていると言う能力に注目が集まっていることが判明したからです。

それは失業率の労働市場に基づいており、それが上昇している場合、現在失業率は非常に低く、私の測定によると上昇していないので、ホワイトハウスが引用され、他の多くの人々が引用したときです。不況ではありません。

母：

 [音楽] 私たちが不況に陥っていないとソムが信じている理由については、すぐに詳しく説明しますが、最初にステファニーがエピソードの冒頭で提起した質問の 1 つ、つまり、FRB が金利を引き上げてインフレを引き下げ、経済を同時に不況に追い込むことは避けてください。

子：

大まかに言えば、価格の上昇であるインフレは、需要が多すぎて供給が少なすぎることによって引き起こされます。

 連邦準備制度理事会には 1 つのツールがあります。それは金利です。金利は基本的に、住宅であろうとクレジットカードであろうと、借りるために支払う価格です。彼らは借り入れのコストを引き上げています。

そうすることで私たちを少し貧しくするので、その支出をしません。

 これはクーリング オフ デマンドと呼ばれるものです。

カ：

 需要の冷却は、インフレと戦うための 1 つの方法であり、FRB が現在行っていることです。

子：

 彼らが需要を冷やすと、人々は物を買う量が減ります。つまり、店内の顧客が少なくなります。その場合、企業はそれほど多くの労働者を必要としなくなり、解雇され、支出が減ります。不況を引き起こすために、彼らは金利をクールな需要に押し上げようとしていますが、あまり多くのことを行わないようにしています.経済が減速し始め、消費者の支出が減り、企業の投資が減り、インフレよりもさらに悪化します。

 これは本質的に、他のビジネスにとって顧客が少ないことを意味します。

 顧客が少ない場合、すべての従業員が必要ないため、一部の従業員は解雇されたり、勤務時間が短縮されたりします。従業員の手取り額が少なくなります。切り返す。

カ：

 それは簡単には止められないドミノ効果です。

子：

このダイナミクスが進み始めると、人々は自分たちが仕事を失うのではないかと心配し、撤退することが多いため、このようなゆっくりとした仕事の喪失の始まりは、支出の減少とレイオフの増加というフィードバック効果をもたらします。小さく始めて、それが続くと、これらのフィードバック効果を中断するのは非常に困難です。

母：

 米国経済が不況に突入したかどうかを判断するのは、国立経済調査局または NBER であることを思い出してください。不況の従来の定義は、実質 GDP が 2 四半期連続してマイナスになっていることです。

 エコノミストの間でも、他のすべての人の間でも、すでに景気後退に陥っているというコンセンサスは得られていません。

子：

 私たちがもっと心配しているのは、私たちが不況に向かっているのかどうか、そしてもし私たちが不況に向かっていると思うなら、それを回避しようとするために何をしているのか、または家族や企業への打撃を和らげることができる方法でそれを準備しているのかということです。不況の中、本当に苦戦しています。

それははるかに重要な会話だと思います。

カ：

インフレとの闘いについて話すとき、多くの場合、焦点はFRBとFRBが設定する金利ですが、金利を上げることには他の効果があり、FRBだけがゲームのプレーヤーではなく、ポイントにガスのようなものがあります連邦政府が直接影響を与えることができない価格と食品。

子：

 人々は、FRB だけがインフレに関する唯一のゲームであると信じてきました。

彼らの使命は価格設定能力と最大雇用であるため、物価の安定はインフレが高くなりすぎないようにすることであり、連邦準備制度理事会は約2％であるべきだと考えています。

それは、他の誰も助けられないという意味ではありません。

大不況の後、連邦準備制度理事会がそのようになるのにそう時間はかからなかった。それは、非常にゆっくりとした痛みを伴う回復であった本当の問題であり、バイデン大統領が口から出したように聞いた.ガソリン価格が高い 食品価格が高い 連邦準備制度理事会はインフレと戦おうとしている。

 そして、これらはまさにFRBが戦うことができない2つのことであり、彼らがすべてを行うことを期待すべきではないので、私は本当に息をのむのが好きです.

 特に今回は特に、おそらく現在のインフレの約半分以上が供給の混乱によるものであり、切望やウクライナのせいで供給が不十分であり、まさにFRBが戦うことができない種類のインフレであり、議会には能力があるインフレに対処するために何かをする。

連邦準備制度理事会は単独でそれを行う必要はありません。

カ：

 今後数か月で、私たちが景気後退に向かっているのか、または景気後退を回避することができているのかが明らかになる可能性があります。クラウディアは何を求めているのでしょうか?

子：

 特に連邦準備制度理事会は、経済学者として訓練された方法ですべてを本当に見ているのでしょうか。

 私はいつも、連邦準備制度はデータのフーバー真空のようなものだったと冗談を言っています。

 マクロエコノミストとしてはちょっとユニークですが、人々の話を聞くようにしています。トレーニングと博士号を取得し、連邦準備制度理事会で何百人ものエコノミストと一緒にいるという事実を尊重します。現実の世界。

正直なところ、それは仕事にとって非常に重要です。

あなたの質問は私のリストの一番上にあると思います労働者にとって問題になる可能性があるほど動き回ることはできませんが、それは仕事を失うこととは大きく異なります。

私が最も興味を持っているのは、労働者とその機会、そして私の大きな焦点である雇用の面で何が起こっているかに関係するすべての分野だと思います.

 そして、今後数か月間、集中するのがずっと難しくなると感じています。

母：

 エピソードの早い段階で、ステファニーは、米国経済が不況にあるかどうかを決定するnberの委員会が、不況が始まってからずっと後に不況が始まったことを発表できると述べました。つまり、委員会は、たとえば2023年に不況の始まりを2022年。

カ：

 もちろん、数字が不況を示している場合。

母：

 ダートマス大学の経済学教授であるデビッド・ブランチフラワーは、実際に景気後退が起こる前に景気後退に陥っているかどうかを判断することを目指しています.

B:

したがって、景気後退期日が後に nbr によって呼び出される原因は何かを予測してみてください。その答えは、2 つの大きな特徴があると予測する変数である消費者信頼感の崩壊です。

 それは最後の6つのうち6つを予測し、誤検知も与えないため、nbrが呼び出さない不況を呼び出す例はありません。明らかに状況が変わる可能性があり、さまざまなことが起こっていますが、選択すべき変数を 1 つ選択する必要がある場合、現時点では景気後退と呼ばれ、おそらく 2022 年の始まりと呼ばれるでしょう。 

カ：

そうです、ブランチフラワーは私たちがすでに景気後退に陥っていると考えていると聞きました。彼は失業率よりも消費者信頼感データを好むと聞いています。その一方で、消費者が経済に不満を持ち始めると、経済の混乱をより早く拾うことができます。

B:

失業率は一般に実際の景気後退期日が過ぎるまで動きません これらの変数の恩恵 これらの消費者信頼感データ 2007年4月までに振り返ると 2007年5月のデータは景気後退が来ることを予測していました.

カ：

 NBER は最終的に、景気後退が 2007 年 12 月に始まったことを発表しました。

 したがって、消費者は私たち全員が景気後退の最良の予測因子であることを意味します。

B:

まず第一に、消費者が経済で何が起こっているのかを恐れている場合、商品の価格が上昇することを心配し、仕事を失うのではないかと心配し、消費をやめます。

 2つ目は、私が「歩き回る経済学」と呼んでいるものについての証拠があるということです。これは、政策立案者や経済予測者よりも、実際に人々が世界で起こっていることをよく知っているということです。ですから、彼らに失業率に何が起こると思いますか? 12か月で。

 彼らは実際にそれを予測するのが本当に上手です 彼らは経済学者よりも優れています 彼らは予測家よりも優れているのですか 彼らは地元のコミュニティで何が起こっているかを知っているので 路上での雇用に何が起こっているかを知っていますあなたは失業が起こると思います。

 最初は彼らは知っているようですが、失業率が上昇すると彼らが考えると、それが彼らの行動に影響を与えるため、失業を恐れていると消費者の信頼が変化するという事実. 将来十分なお金を持てなくなるのではないかと恐れている場合、あなたは何に身を潜めますか?

カ：

 米国が景気後退に陥っていないことを示す最も強力な根拠は何だとブランチフラワーに尋ねた.

B:

 今回は違っていて、労働市場はあなたが思っているよりも強く、これらのデータは予測的ではなく、ソフトランディングがあるという議論ですが、それが間違っていることを証明することはできません.

 消費者信頼感データがそれほど良くなく、不況に陥ったとしてもそれが比較的浅いものになるかどうかわからない可能性があります.

母：

そうは言っても、プランシェ フラワーは不況の正確な予測因子としての消費者心理を固く信じています。クラウディア サムに、消費者感情データがそれほど決定的であると思うかどうか尋ねました。

子：

 私はそのデータを尊重します.これは私が人々のように感じる数少ないケースの1つです.これは調査中ですが、マクロエコノミストと話す機会が与えられています.

これらの人々は彼らの財務状況についての質問に答えています.彼らはこの質問に何を答えていると思いますか.経済はどこでうまくいっているのか.プロの予測者である私たちにとって、彼らの意見に耳を傾けるか、少なくとも考慮することは非常に重要だと思います.現実世界での生活の専門家なので、センチメント調査には多くの用途があると思います.また、連邦政府での私の政策研究でそれを扱ったことも知っています.データは時々少し注意して解釈する必要があります.人々が最もひどいことを言っていることを知っており、昨年の夏に不況に陥っていた、または不況の領域に向かった消費者の感情を使用して、財政についてどのように感じているかに加えて、私たちが世界についてどのように感じているかを知ることができます.

 悪い感情が悪化する年がありましたが、景気後退には陥っていません。

 ですから、ガス価格が非常に高いということはわかりません。人々はガス価格が高いのを好まないのです。

 ヨーロッパでパンデミックが発生しました 戦争がありました 多くの党派政治がありました 有権者は、あなたがそれらすべてを重ねたことに満足しておらず、彼らが経済とインフレに不満を持っているのはそこにありますそこにいるので、私たちを少しごまかしていると思います。

しかし、世界は悪く、景気後退のリスクはかなり高まっていると思います。

カ：

 最高の新しいアイデアとお金を聞いてくれてありがとう.

ポッドキャストを聴いている場所ならどこでも番組を購読できます。聞いたものが気に入ったら、評価またはレビューを残してください。将来のエピソードのアイデアがある場合は、marketwatch.com で最高の新しいアイデアとお金を私たちに送ってください。

クラウディア・サム・デビッド・ブランチフラワーとマーク・ブロットに感謝して、景気後退についてもっと学びましょう。

母：

そして、私はチャールズ・パッシです 最高の新しいアイデアとお金はマーケットウォッチのポッドキャストです メリッサ・ハガティはエグゼクティブプロデューサーであり、プロデューサーはケイティ・ファーガソン・メタルゾフトとマイケル・マクダウェルであり、ベストケース・スタジオのアソシエイト・プロデューサーはハナ・リーボウィッツ・ロックハートです ウィル・スタントンからの追加の編集の助けjeremy binks は私たちのニュース編集者であり、tim Roston は Market Watch の編集長です。

最高の新しいアイデアとお金のテーマは、サム・レッツァーによって作曲されました.

stephanie kelton はエコノミストであり、ストーニー ブルック大学の経済学と公共政策の教授であり、マーケットウォッチ ニュースルームのメンバーではありません。[音楽]

0:00

[Music]

0:00

if you're listening to most economists i

0:03

think the consensus is that there's

0:05

better than a 50 50 shot the odds are

0:08

better than 50 50 now that the us

0:11

economy goes into recession either in

0:13

2022 or 2023.

0:17

welcome to the best new ideas in money a

0:19

podcast from marketwatch i'm stephanie

0:22

kelton i'm an economist and a professor

0:24

of economics and public policy at stony

0:26

brook university and i'm charles passey

0:28

a reporter at marketwatch each week we

0:31

explore innovations in economics finance

0:34

technology and policy that rethink the

0:36

way we live work spend save and invest

0:40

there's been a lot of news about

0:42

inflation lately and about whether we

0:44

are entering a recession or whether

0:45

we've already arrived

0:47

fortunately it just so happens that i'm

0:49

sitting right next to somebody who might

0:50

have some thoughts about that yeah who

0:53

might that be stephanie this has to be

0:55

one of the most interesting moments in

0:56

recent memory to be an economist oh you

0:59

better believe it

1:00

so what are the biggest questions people

1:02

are asking you these days

1:04

the first is

1:06

how is the fed planning to bring down

1:08

inflation and we all know that the fed

1:11

has been raising interest rates and that

1:13

is by and large how the central bank is

1:16

trying to fight inflation

1:18

and the big question that's related to

1:20

that is can the fed raise interest rates

1:25

bring down inflation and avoid

1:28

pushing the economy into recession

1:31

so the risk may be that in trying to

1:32

solve one problem inflation the federal

1:35

reserve could create a more serious one

1:38

the concern

1:39

is that if the fed is too aggressive

1:43

with raising interest rates

1:45

this increases the cost of borrowing for

1:48

consumers it makes it more expensive to

1:50

borrow money to buy a home buy a car put

1:53

things on your credit card if you're a

1:55

business that relies on borrowing to

1:57

cover some of your own costs it makes it

2:00

more expensive to conduct business

2:03

and what a lot of people are worried

2:05

about

2:06

is that the central bank by raising

2:08

interest rates is going to create a lot

2:11

of headwinds for the economy that is in

2:14

a recovery or has been in a recovery

2:17

and the risk is that the recovery goes

2:20

from an economic expansion the recovery

2:23

phase of the business cycle into

2:26

contraction into the recessionary part

2:28

of the business cycle

2:30

on july 28 the commerce department

2:32

reported that the us economy shrank for

2:34

the second quarter in a row and two

2:37

consecutive quarters of negative real

2:38

gdp growth is the shorthand definition

2:41

of a recession that means adjusting for

2:44

inflation the economy is actually

2:45

starting to produce less

2:47

stephanie if inflation was the story of

2:49

the summer recession might be the story

2:51

of the fall is it possible that we're

2:53

already in a recession

2:55

it's possible and there are some very

2:57

good economists out there who are

2:59

arguing and have been arguing that the

3:02

u.s may well have entered a recession

3:05

in the last part of

3:07

2021 or the early part of

3:10

2022.

3:12

so we won't know for sure until the

3:15

committee that is responsible for

3:17

telling us officially when the economy

3:20

goes into recession that's the nber or

3:22

the national bureau of economic research

3:26

they will ultimately be the ones to tell

3:28

us now the funny thing is i mean in a

3:30

sense it's funny in a sense it's

3:32

not funny

3:34

they very often will tell us that we

3:37

have gone into recession

3:38

a year or even

3:40

more than a year after the recession

3:42

officially started

3:44

now why is that

3:46

well because they're looking at a

3:48

variety of factors and it is a committee

3:51

decision to look at the economic

3:54

landscape to try to in a sense read all

3:56

of the tea leaves and it gets harder the

3:58

more mixed the economic picture is and

4:01

that's kind of where we are today you

4:03

have you know a smattering of economic

4:07

data that look pretty good that point to

4:10

resilience in the economy in the labor

4:12

market in retail sales and so forth and

4:16

then you have to weigh that against

4:18

where you see some softening and say

4:20

okay things appear to be cooling and

4:23

housing consumer spending sentiment bad

4:26

debt write-offs when those start to pick

4:28

up and you see people starting to miss a

4:30

few payments businesses

4:33

starting to worry about the robustness

4:36

of demand going forward and all that

4:37

sort of stuff so they're looking at the

4:39

whole picture and then they have to come

4:42

together and decide

4:44

whether and when to call it sufficiently

4:48

gloomy that it merits giving it the name

4:52

recession well stephanie i have to ask

4:54

where do you think we are today would i

4:57

call this a recession

5:00

well i gave a talk recently and the

5:02

subtitle of the talk was the tale of

5:04

four recessions and i opened with the

5:06

recession of 2001 followed by the

5:09

recession of 2007 to 2009

5:12

and then the 2020 recession the fourth

5:15

one that story has yet to be written so

5:18

i put on the slide 202 x where the value

5:23

of x is the question is x 2 is it 20 22

5:27

is x 3 20 23 i think that right now if

5:31

you're listening to leaders in the

5:33

business community ceos and others if

5:36

you're listening to investors if you're

5:39

listening to most economists i think the

5:41

consensus is

5:43

that there's better than a 50 50

5:46

shot the odds are better than 50 50 now

5:49

that the u.s economy goes into recession

5:52

either in 2022 or 2023. there aren't as

5:56

many voices saying

5:58

we're going to completely avoid

5:59

recession and it's not on the horizon so

6:02

the question is is x2 or is x3 and it

6:06

won't surprise me at all

6:09

to learn

6:10

that x was 2.

6:12

when the time comes and nber gives us

6:15

the official word

6:16

if they tell us that the economy went

6:18

into recession this year

6:20

i will not be surprised at all

6:23

there seems to be an intense focus on

6:25

the fed what the fed should do what it

6:27

shouldn't do but what else are you

6:28

following

6:30

there's so much attention being paid to

6:33

the federal reserve and

6:35

monetary tightening raising interest

6:37

rates is the fed going to be the one to

6:41

push the economy into recession

6:44

i think a lot of people are overlooking

6:46

the extent to which the other policy

6:49

lever fiscal policy

6:51

has been yanked very very hard

6:54

in the direction of an economic slowdown

6:57

in other words the spending that was

7:00

used to support the economy

7:02

after the pandemic hit and to provide

7:05

relief and income support and so forth

7:07

that is all dried up

7:09

and

7:10

the deficit is actually falling

7:12

faster than at any time in u.s history

7:16

we've never had such fiscal contraction

7:19

before so what you have are the two

7:20

policy levers monetary policy and fiscal

7:23

policy

7:24

both being pulled in a direction

7:27

of slowdown and so it's not just the fed

7:30

that we ought to be thinking about in

7:32

terms of the impact of higher interest

7:35

rates and the potential for that to

7:37

create a slowdown

7:38

and a potential recession but having

7:41

that work alongside pulling the fiscal

7:44

lever and slowing things down that way

7:47

as well so it's that

7:49

mix of policies that i think a lot of

7:52

economists see

7:54

as

7:55

almost inevitably

7:57

pushing the economy into recession

7:59

[Music]

8:05

how do we know if we're in a recession

8:07

or not that's after the break stay with

8:09

us

8:11

[Music]

8:18

[Music]

8:30

welcome back to the best new ideas in

8:31

money before the break we talked about

8:33

two of the major issues in today's

8:35

economy inflation and growing concern

8:38

that the united states may be headed

8:40

toward recession stephanie you posed a

8:42

question at the beginning of the episode

8:44

can the fed raise interest rates bring

8:46

down inflation and avoid pushing the

8:48

economy into a recession all at the same

8:51

time

8:52

yeah that's the tricky question that

8:54

everybody is asking

8:55

it seems like every week there's a new

8:57

batch of data data that should shed more

8:59

light on the dynamics of the present but

9:01

does that mean we're getting closer to

9:03

having some definitive answers

9:05

so there are these fierce disagreements

9:07

among economists about all of this and

9:10

on one hand some people will say well

9:12

it's obvious we're sliding into

9:13

recession what in the world are the rest

9:15

of you looking at and others will say

9:18

wait a minute how can you be so quick to

9:19

jump to conclusions like look how many

9:21

jobs we're creating look how low the

9:23

unemployment rate is

9:24

our first guest is in that ladder group

9:27

she's among those who say hang on a

9:29

minute even though we've had two

9:30

consecutive quarters of declining real

9:32

gdp growth it doesn't look like a

9:35

recession to me

9:37

[Music]

9:42

my name is claudia sam and i am the

9:45

founder of som consulting and a former

9:48

federal reserve economist i started the

9:51

federal reserve right before the

9:53

financial crisis in 2008

9:56

and my focus was on consumer spending

10:00

sam has been having a lot of

10:01

conversations lately about whether or

10:02

not we're in a recession and there's a

10:04

reason for that i have a recession

10:07

indicator that was named after me the

10:09

psalm rule

10:10

and it is a highly

10:12

accurate indicator that we are

10:15

within the beginning of a recession

10:18

the sum rule is an indicator not a

10:20

predictor basically when the

10:22

unemployment rate rises by a certain

10:24

percentage above the low of the prior

10:26

year it indicates the economy has

10:28

entered recession

10:29

i developed it because it was part of a

10:32

policy proposal to send out stimulus

10:35

checks relief checks at the beginning of

10:36

a recession

10:38

as it turns out it's gotten a lot more

10:40

attention lately in its ability

10:42

to say we're in a recession

10:45

and it's based on the labor market on

10:46

the unemployment rate and if it's rising

10:49

and right now the unemployment rate is

10:50

really low and it's not rising so

10:52

according to

10:54

my measure and it's when the white house

10:55

is cited and many other

10:57

people have cited

10:59

we're not in a recession

11:01

[Music]

11:03

we'll hear more about why som believes

11:05

we're not in a recession in a moment but

11:07

first let's address one of the questions

11:09

that stephanie posed at the beginning of

11:11

the episode namely can the fed raise

11:13

interest rates bring down inflation and

11:15

avoid pushing the economy into a

11:17

recession all at the same time

11:20

broadly speaking

11:22

inflation which is an increase in prices

11:25

is caused by there being too much demand

11:28

and too little supply

11:30

the fed has one tool it's interest rates

11:33

interest rates are basically the price

11:34

we pay to borrow whether it's a house

11:37

whether it's on a credit card

11:39

they are

11:40

raising the cost of borrowing

11:43

and by doing so

11:45

making us a little bit poorer so we

11:47

don't do that spending and that's what

11:49

you know is referred to as cooling off

11:51

demand

11:52

cooling off demand is one way to try to

11:54

fight inflation and it's what the fed is

11:56

currently doing

11:58

when they cool off demand people buy

12:00

less stuff that means there's less

12:02

customers in the store well then the

12:03

businesses don't need as many workers

12:05

they get laid off and then they spend

12:07

less you know so on and so forth now the

12:10

fed is not trying to cause a recession

12:12

they're trying to

12:14

push interest rates up cool demand

12:16

but not do too much

12:19

unfortunately the inflation data is kept

12:21

coming in really strong so the fed keeps

12:23

pushing and pushing

12:25

at some point they will break

12:27

demand like consumers will just pull

12:29

back that would be a recession okay so

12:31

that's really bad a recession is really

12:33

bad

12:34

it's even worse than inflation by a mile

12:38

as the economy starts slowing

12:40

so consumers are spending less

12:43

businesses are investing less

12:46

that essentially means for other

12:47

businesses there are fewer customers

12:51

if you have fewer customers then

12:54

you don't

12:55

need all your workers

12:57

so then some workers get laid off or

13:00

even their hours cut your workers get

13:03

less

13:04

less take-home pay and then that means

13:06

when they go out to spend money they're

13:08

going to cut back

13:10

it's a domino effect that's not easy to

13:12

stop

13:13

once this dynamic starts going

13:17

often people get really worried that

13:20

they might be the ones to lose their

13:21

jobs and they pull back

13:24

so

13:25

this slow kind of the start of people

13:27

losing their jobs has feedback effects

13:31

in terms of less spending and more

13:32

layoffs and that's how you start small

13:36

and once it keeps going those feedback

13:38

effects

13:39

are very hard to interrupt

13:42

remember it's the national bureau of

13:44

economic research or nber that

13:47

determines whether or not the us economy

13:49

has entered a recession and although the

13:51

conventional definition of recession is

13:53

two consecutive negative quarters of

13:54

real gdp there is no consensus among

13:57

economists or everyone else that we're

14:00

in a recession already for claudia sam

14:03

focusing on whether or not we're in a

14:04

recession is missing the point

14:06

i'm much more worried about are we

14:09

headed towards a recession

14:11

and if we think we're headed towards one

14:14

what are we doing to try to avoid it or

14:18

preparing for it in ways that we could

14:20

soften the blow

14:22

on

14:22

families and businesses that would

14:24

really struggle through a recession

14:27

i think that's a much much more

14:29

important conversation

14:33

when we talk about fighting inflation

14:34

the focus is often on the fed and the

14:36

interest rate the fed sets but raising

14:39

interest rates has other effects and the

14:41

fed isn't the only player in the game

14:43

and more to the point there are some

14:45

things like gas prices and food which

14:47

the fed can't directly influence

14:50

it has

14:52

been the case for a long time

14:54

that

14:55

people believe that the fed is the only

14:57

game in town on inflation their mandates

15:00

are priced ability and maximum

15:02

employment so that price stability is

15:04

about keeping inflation from not getting

15:06

too high the fed thinks it should be

15:08

around two percent the fed absolutely

15:10

has a responsibility for inflation

15:13

that does not mean

15:15

that no one else can help out

15:19

after the great recession it wasn't too

15:21

long before the fed was like it the

15:23

congress stepped away and that that was

15:25

a real problem that was a very slow and

15:26

painful recovery

15:28

and i've heard president biden like it

15:30

has come out of his mouth gas prices are

15:32

high food prices are high the fed's got

15:34

this they're going to fight inflation

15:35

and i really like i gasped because these

15:37

are exactly the two things the fed can't

15:39

fight and also like we shouldn't be

15:41

expecting them to do it all this time in

15:43

particular because

15:46

probably about a half or more of the

15:49

inflation we have right now is due to

15:51

supply disruptions not enough supply

15:54

because of covet or because of ukraine

15:57

and that's exactly the kind of inflation

15:59

the fed can't fight congress has the

16:01

ability to do things to address

16:03

inflation

16:04

the fed doesn't have to go it alone

16:07

over the next few months it may become

16:09

clearer whether we've entered are

16:11

heading into or managing to avoid a

16:13

recession

16:14

what will claudia be looking for

16:17

what am i going to be watching

16:19

everything

16:20

truly the way i was trained particularly

16:23

the federal reserve as an economist

16:24

every scrap of data

16:27

is

16:28

important

16:29

i always joke the federal reserve was

16:31

like the hoover vacuum of data

16:34

the other thing that i do which is

16:37

somewhat unique for a macro economist

16:41

is i

16:43

try to listen

16:44

to people

16:46

i respect the fact that

16:48

given my training and a phd and hanging

16:51

out with hundreds of economists at the

16:53

federal reserve that i don't always have

16:56

that connection

16:58

to the real world and honestly that's

17:00

really important for the work

17:02

more to the point i think of your

17:04

question really at the top of my list is

17:07

looking at what's happening

17:10

in the labor market

17:11

if it's weakening and in what ways it's

17:14

weakening if it's just job postings get

17:17

pulled down and so people have fewer

17:20

options and they can't move around as

17:22

much that can be problematic for workers

17:25

but that's very different than

17:27

losing your job

17:28

so i think that's the space that i'm

17:30

most interested in is everything that

17:33

touches

17:34

workers and

17:35

their opportunities and what's happening

17:38

in terms of employment that's my big

17:40

focus and i have a feeling that focus is

17:43

going to be a lot harder to stomach over

17:45

the coming months

17:47

earlier in the episode stephanie

17:49

mentioned that the committee at nber

17:51

which determines whether or not the u.s

17:53

economy is in a recession could announce

17:55

that a recession began long after it did

17:58

begin

17:59

meaning that in 2023 for example the

18:01

committee could date the beginning of

18:03

the recession to 2022 if the numbers

18:06

indicate recession of course

18:08

david blanchflower a professor of

18:10

economics at dartmouth college aims to

18:12

determine whether or not we're in a

18:14

recession before it actually happens

18:16

blanchflower previously sat on the

18:18

monetary policy committee at the bank of

18:20

england the british central bank so what

18:23

you want to do is try and predict

18:25

what it is that causes the recession

18:28

date later to be called by the nbr and

18:30

the answer is collapse consumer

18:33

confidence that's the variable that

18:36

predicts it has two great

18:37

characteristics it predicts six of the

18:39

last six and it also doesn't give you a

18:42

false positive so there aren't examples

18:44

where it calls recessions that the nbr

18:46

doesn't call so obviously things may

18:49

change and there's lots of different

18:50

stuff that's going on but if you had to

18:52

pick a single variable that would be the

18:54

one you should pick and at the moment it

18:56

looks that they will call recession and

18:58

they'll probably call it and the start

19:00

of 2022.

19:02

so yes you heard that right blanchflower

19:05

thinks we're already in a recession he

19:07

prefers consumer confidence data to

19:09

unemployment because unemployment is a

19:11

lagging indicator in other words by the

19:14

time you see the unemployment rate

19:16

starting to rise the recession is

19:17

already underway consumer confidence

19:20

data on the other hand can pick up

19:21

turbulence in the economy much earlier

19:24

as consumers begin to sour on the

19:25

economy well unemployment doesn't move

19:28

until generally after

19:30

their actual date of recession the

19:33

benefit of these variables these

19:35

consumer confidence data so we look back

19:37

at 2007

19:39

by april may 2007 the data were

19:42

predicting that recession was coming the

19:44

nber would eventually announce that the

19:46

recession began in december of 2007.

19:49

so our consumers meaning all of us the

19:52

best predictors of recession

19:54

so the first thing is if consumers fear

19:56

for what's happening in the economy what

19:58

do they do

19:59

they worry about the price of goods

20:02

rising they worry they're going to lose

20:03

their jobs so what they do

20:05

they stop spending the second thing is

20:07

we have evidence on what i call the

20:09

economics of walking about which is

20:11

actually people know about what's

20:13

happening in the world better than

20:14

policy makers or economic forecasters so

20:17

when you say to them what do you think

20:19

is going to happen to unemployment in 12

20:21

months they're actually really good at

20:23

predicting it they're better than

20:24

economists are they better than

20:25

forecasters are and why well because

20:28

they know what's going on in their local

20:30

communities they know what's happening

20:32

to hiring on the streets so if you ask

20:34

people

20:34

what do you think is going to happen to

20:36

unemployment

20:37

firstly they seem to know but if they

20:40

think unemployment is going to rise that

20:42

impacts their behavior

20:44

so the fact that consumer confidence

20:45

changes if you are fearful of losing

20:48

your job if you're fearful that you're

20:50

not going to have enough money in the

20:51

future what do you do you hunker down we

20:53

asked blanchflower what he sees as the

20:55

strongest argument that the united

20:57

states is not in a recession

21:00

the argument that it's different this

21:01

time

21:02

and that the labor market's stronger

21:04

than you think

21:05

and these data are not predictive and

21:08

that there will be a soft landing

21:11

i cannot prove that that's wrong it

21:14

could be that the consumer confidence

21:15

data

21:16

are not that good and that we will not

21:19

know that if we go into a recession it

21:21

will be a relatively shallow one

21:23

with that said planche flower is a firm

21:26

believer in consumer sentiment as an

21:28

accurate predictor of recession we asked

21:30

claudia sam whether she thought the

21:32

consumer sentiment data was so decisive

21:35

i respect that data it's one of the few

21:38

cases where i feel like people i mean

21:41

this is in a survey but they're given

21:42

the opportunity to talk to us macro

21:44

economists

21:45

these are

21:46

people answering questions about their

21:48

financial conditions what do they think

21:50

they're answering this question

21:52

where's the economy going right and i

21:54

think it's very important for those of

21:56

us who are professional forecasters to

22:00

listen to

22:01

or at least consider the views of people

22:03

who are

22:04

professionals in living in the real

22:06

world so i think there's a lot of use in

22:09

the sentiment survey i also know having

22:12

worked with it in my policy work at the

22:14

fed

22:15

the data

22:16

sometimes are a little

22:18

you got to be a little careful

22:20

interpreting them you know people say

22:22

the darndest things and it can pick up a

22:25

lot of how we

22:27

feel about the world in addition to how

22:30

we feel about our finances

22:32

with using consumer sentiment

22:35

we were in recessionary or headed to

22:37

recessionary territory last summer

22:41

we've had a year of bad sentiment

22:43

getting worse

22:44

and we're not in a recession

22:46

so

22:48

i don't know i mean we have really high

22:50

gas prices people don't like high gas

22:52

prices we have had

22:54

a pandemic a war in europe we have a lot

22:57

of partisan politics

23:00

voters aren't happy

23:02

you've layered all that on

23:04

and

23:05

it's in there that

23:07

they're unhappy about the economy and

23:09

inflation

23:11

there's more there absolutely has to be

23:13

more in there

23:14

so i think it's been kind of

23:17

faking us out a little bit

23:19

but

23:21

the world is

23:22

bad and i do think the risks of

23:24

recessions have risen

23:26

a lot

23:31

thanks for listening to the best new

23:32

ideas and money you can subscribe to the

23:35

show wherever you listen to podcasts and

23:37

if you like what you heard please leave

23:39

us a rating or review

23:41

and if you have ideas for future

23:42

episodes drop us a line at best new

23:44

ideas and money at marketwatch.com

23:48

thanks to claudia sam david blanchflower

23:50

and mark blott to learn more about

23:52

recessions head to marketwatch.com

23:55

i'm stephanie kelp and i'm charles passi

23:58

the best new ideas and money is a

24:00

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24:02

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24:04

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[Music]