キーン #182 SLAYING ZOMBIE ECONOMIES - STEVE KEEN | Being Human

 #182 SLAYING ZOMBIE ECONOMIES - STEVE KEEN | Being Human キーン
https://love-and-theft-2014.blogspot.com/2021/10/182-slaying-zombie-economies-steve-keen.html @
https://iitomo2010.blogspot.com/2021/10/profstevekeen.html?zx=deb1f22b9c20c427 

ソフトウェアMinsky解説動画（英語）

https://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/minsky/

#182 SLAYING ZOMBIE ECONOMIES - STEVE KEEN | Being Human
2021/09/18https://t.co/24UkHwjSlV pic.twitter.com/6wKLi0UWSa

— 地域通貨花子１ (@TiikituukaHana) October 25, 2021

#182 SLAYING ZOMBIE ECONOMIES - STEVE KEEN | Being Human

2021/09/18

https://youtu.be/76u2irgXSiY?t=69m38s

動画は左から右に直線的に説明：

これは、投資(I)が資本水準(I/PK→IR)をもたらし、生産水準(L/N)をもたらし、雇用水準( λラムダ)をもたらし、賃金(W)の変化をもたらし、賃金率(WR)を決定する......生産高から賃金(W)と利子(intDF)を引くと利益(π/K)が得られ、これが投資率(πr)を決定する。

そして、投資(π？)が収入(K?)を上回る場合は、お金を借りて利息(D)を払わなければなりません。これが左から右への基本的な論理です。

this is investment causing the level of capital causing the level of output causing level of employment causing wage change determining the wage rate um subtract wages and interest from output you get profit which determines the rate of investment.

and if investment exceeds what you um are earning then you've got to borrow money and pay interest on the money that's the basic logic from left to right now.

 

下の別図は時計回りに説明：

 

 

（i saw this first in august of 1992 was there was a period of diminishing cycles before a breakdown.

so the cycles in the economy got smaller and then they got larger and you had a crisis the model economy.

 and that was what happened in the real world after i wrote my model.

you had what's called the great moderation and neoclassicals like ben bernanke took credit for it. ）

69:38~72:40

it was actually a prediction of my model this would happen if there was too much rising private debt.

 which is the exact story we saw so um let's see do we should i show that on screen yeah no please do okay now it's going to look a bit of a nightmare.

if you're used to engineering you won't be quite so scared but some of your audience might be so tell me how to go that's the model so it's a flow chart i've actually read here.

this is investment causing the level of capital causing the level of output causing level of employment causing wage change determining the wage rate um subtract wages and interest from output you get profit which determines the rate of investment.

and if investment exceeds what you um are earning then you've got to borrow money and pay interest on the money that's the basic logic from left to right now.

when i run the model and this was not at all built it wasn't a prediction model notice the growth rate cycles are getting smaller.

you're getting burns and slumps that are getting smaller over time and that's what neoclassicals would have called the great moderation but as the debt level rises.

 and i'm actually not showing the debt level directly on that graph i'll put it in a later stage um you start getting increasing cycles and then finally you get a breakdown now right that's okay.

i didn't realize i didn't actually include the debt ratio（ there so if you can handle me uh whatever have i got there silly this is another model i i hadn't actually realized i hadn't uh let's just actually just do this and copy that and like just stop the running stop the model from running for a moment and if i divide depth by output pardon me yeah mice are always fun to work with when you're doing something live on screen and i'll just graph that and ）this will show the debt ratio （which shows what's actually driving the whole system so if i include the debt ratio inside there and restart the whole thing） then you're getting this tendency for a rising level of private debt as well as the rising level of uh economic activity （deciding initially that doesn't yeah initially it seems like this is a good thing right.

and you've got a stable economy but） it's not stable okay and this is the sort of mathematics that is commonplace in in engineering uh in in complex systems analysis in general neoclassicals don't do this.

so they don't do dynamic analysis like this they force everything into equilibrium now what i'm showing of course is far from equilibrium behavior so that's the sort of thinking i want to get into economics.and this is why i saw the financial crisis coming.

because the symptoms in the real world that the neoclassicals were taking credit for and thinking we're good i was saying holy moly that reminds me of my model this doesn't look healthy.

#第182回 SLAYING ZOMBIE ECONOMIES - STEVE KEEN | Being Human

2021/09

https://youtu.be/76u2irgXSiY

（最初に見たのは、崩壊の前にサイクルが減少する期間があるというものでした。

つまり、経済のサイクルが小さくなり、その後大きくなって、モデル経済が危機に陥ったのです。

 私がモデルを書いた後、現実の世界ではこのようなことが起こりました。

ベン・バーナンキのような新古典派はその功績を称えましたが、これは私のモデルの予測でした。）

69:38~72:40

実はこれは、私のモデルが予測していたことでした。

 民間の債務が増えすぎると、まさにこのような事態になってしまうのです。

工学に慣れている人はそれほど怖くないと思いますが、視聴者の中には怖がる人もいるかもしれませんので、どのようにすればいいのか教えてください。

これは、投資が資本水準をもたらし、生産水準をもたらし、雇用水準をもたらし、賃金の変化をもたらし、賃金率を決定する......生産高から賃金と利子を引くと利益が得られ、これが投資率を決定する。

そして、投資が収入を上回る場合は、お金を借りて利息を払わなければなりません。これが左から右への基本的な論理です。

このモデルを実行してみると、成長率のサイクルが小さくなっていることに気づきます。

新古典派が「大いなる節度」と呼んでいたものですが、負債レベルが上昇するにつれて、その規模は小さくなっています。

 実はこのグラフでは債務残高を直接表示していませんが、後の段階で表示することにしました......つまり、増加サイクルが始まり、最後には破綻するのです。

私はここに負債比率を入れていないことに気がつきませんでしたので、もしあなたが私を処理してくれるなら......愚かなことに、これは私が実際に気がつかなかった別のモデルです......実際にこれをやって、それをコピーして、ちょっとモデルの実行を止めてみましょう......深さを出力で割ると......すみません......あなたが何かをしているとき、マウスはいつでも楽しいものです。これは負債比率を示していますが、これは実際にシステム全体を動かしているものを示しています。そこで、負債比率を含めて全体を再起動すると、民間負債の増加傾向と、経済活動の増加傾向が得られます。

このような数学は、エンジニアリングや複雑なシステム分析では当たり前のことですが、一般的に新古典派はこれを行いません。

彼らはこのような動的分析を行わず、すべてを強制的に平衡状態にしてしまいます。

だからこそ、私は金融危機の到来を予見していたのです。

というのも、新古典派が評価し、我々は大丈夫だと考えていた現実世界の症状が、私のモデルを思い起こさせ、これは健全ではなさそうだ、と言っていたからです。

https://sourceforge.net/p/minsky/screenshot/DebtDeflation.PNG
https://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/minsky/

Minsky

Rus­sell Stan­dish has been work­ing on Min­sky thanks to the extra funds raised by the donate but­ton below.

He has pro­duced a beta which is a sub­stan­tial improve­ment over the release ver­sion cur­rent­ly on the Source­forge home page. It adds:

• an equa­tion viewer–so you can design a mod­el and instant­ly see the equa­tions behind it from with­in Min­sky (as well as export them to LaTeX);
• A dif­fer­en­tial oper­a­tor, so you can cal­cu­late rates of change (and in typ­i­cal Rus­sell style, this is no ordi­nary numer­i­cal approx­i­ma­tion but a full sym­bol­ic dif­fer­en­tial sys­tem, so the approx­i­ma­tion prob­lems that apply with (to my knowl­edge) all oth­er sys­tem dynam­ics pro­gram dif­fer­en­tial oper­a­tors don't apply to Min­sky);
• A large num­ber of bug fix­es.

With the caveat that beta ver­sions almost always have bugs, this ver­sion is very close to a new release can­di­date and I would rec­om­mend using it rather than the sta­ble release:

Min­sky Beta Page

Keep Russell Standish coding Minsky

Min­sky has been devel­oped thanks to two grants: an ini­tial US$128,000 grant from INET, and crowd­fund­ing of $78,000 from Kick­starter. With oth­er amounts from indi­vid­ual donor, that has fund­ed about 2500 hours of pro­gram­ming by the bril­liant pro­gram­mer behind Min­sky, Pro­fes­sor Rus­sell Stan­dish. I will be apply­ing for oth­er grants now that I am based in the UK, but in the mean­time more fund­ing is need­ed to keep the devel­op­ment rolling and to reserve Rus­sel­l's skills for Min­sky. So please donate via the Pay­pal link above: the funds go direct­ly to Rus­sell, and the mon­ey raised so far–about $8,000–has helped pro­duce the lat­est beta, which

Source­Forge Project of the Month for Jan­u­ary 2014

We're delight­ed that Source­Forge has seen fit to make Min­sky it's Project of the Month. Min­sky is both a gen­er­al pur­pose sys­tem dynam­ics pro­gram, and the first such pro­gram specif­i­cal­ly designed to sup­port the build­ing of mon­e­tary mod­els of the econ­o­my.

Our design objec­tive has been to make it as intu­itive as pos­si­ble to use, while sup­port­ing var­i­ous advanced features–such as main­tain­ing con­sis­ten­cy between mul­ti­ple mon­e­tary flow tables–in as seam­less a way as pos­si­ble. We hope that users will find it use­ful, and we would be delight­ed to get cod­ing assis­tance from devel­op­ers, user assis­tance in bug test­ing and build­ing the help sys­tem, etc.

Dr. Rus­sell Stan­dish and I have been work­ing on Min­sky now for almost two years now–first using a $125K from INET's Spring 2011 grant round and then anoth­er $80K from a suc­cess­ful Kick­starter cam­paign: Rus­sell as builder (cod­ing in C++ and Tcl/Tk) and me as archi­tect (play­ing with each release, spot­ting bugs and sug­gest­ing fea­tures). It's been a part-time endeav­or: Rus­sell, as a con­tract pro­gram­mer, has to keep more than one iron in the fire, while I have a fair few balls in the air myself. Rus­sell has put in about 2000 hours of cod­ing over that time.

That amount of cod­ing is chick­en feed com­pared to the mil­lions of hours that have gone into a stan­dard com­mer­cial prod­uct like Microsoft Word or Excel, so Min­sky is still rough at the edges, and lacks a num­ber of fea­tures that you would expect in a com­mer­cial pack­age. But there is enough core func­tion­al­i­ty and sta­bil­i­ty in place for a first major release–the "Mun" ver­sion which can now be down­loaded from Source­Forge (major iter­a­tions of Min­sky are named after major thinkers in economics–we start­ed with Aris­to­tle).

There is still only a rudi­men­ta­ry and incom­plete Help file (did I say I had too many balls in the air?), so to make up for it I've record­ed the fol­low­ing set of 15 videos that cov­er most of the fea­tures of the pro­gram. They're all up on YouTube (where the num­ber is the series changes from 8 to 11 to 15…), but here they are for easy ref­er­ence, with some notes about what each video cov­ers. All the Min­sky (mky) files used in the pre­sen­ta­tions are in this Zip file.

So if you're into eco­nom­ic mod­el­ing and you'd like to devel­op dynam­ic mon­e­tary mod­els, Min­sky now has enough fea­tures to be worth using–and it won't face the lim­i­ta­tions that apply to more con­ven­tion­al sys­tem dynam­ics pro­grams, like Stel­la, Ven­sim, Vis­sim, etc., that make it inher­ent­ly chal­leng­ing to mod­el the finan­cial sys­tem. With Min­sky and its God­ley Tables, mon­e­tary mod­el­ing is a cinch (and it will get eas­i­er as we add more capa­bil­i­ties to the pro­gram). So please, down­load the pro­gram, join our beta-test­ing group, and start build­ing mon­e­tary macro­eco­nom­ics.

If you're a devel­op­er with time to devote to this project, imme­di­ate needs include:

• Spruc­ing up plots;
• Copy and paste sup­port files;
• Mul­ti­ple files open at once;
• Build­ing a LaTeX view­er into Min­sky;

Medi­um term needs include:

• A direct LaTeX edi­tor with seam­less trans­fer between the equa­tion pane and the can­vas pane;
• Adding Social Account­ing Matrix sup­port for equa­tion con­sis­ten­cy check­ing;

The long term objec­tives include:

• Trans­form a "scalar" eco­nom­ic mod­el into a "vec­tor" with mon­e­tary and phys­i­cal input-out­put dynam­ics with one click;
• Mul­ti­ple econ­o­my sup­port with finan­cial and phys­i­cal flows between economies, cur­ren­cy con­ver­sion, etc.;
• Data import­ing, manip­u­la­tion and non­lin­ear para­me­ter fit­ting

Minsky 1.0 Demo #1 Basics And Godley Table

Installing Min­sky from a ZIP file, the can­vas, wiring to build equa­tions, installing a graph, graph­ing a basic func­tion like sin(t), out­putting the equa­tions to LaTeX (which you can import into MathType in Word), and a basic "endoge­nous mon­ey" God­ley Table.

Min­sky Files: sine.mky (using Min­sky to plot a sine wave); Godley.mky (a basic pure­ly mon­e­tary mod­el, with no simulation–just the dou­ble-entry book­keep­ing table).

Minsky 1.0 Demo #2 Godley Simulation

Using a God­ley Table to define a numer­i­cal sim­u­la­tion: right-click to copy flows and vari­ables ("stocks"), defin­ing mon­e­tary equa­tions, and run­ning a sim­u­la­tion.

Min­sky file: GodleySim01.mky (the same mod­el as in the pre­vi­ous video with def­i­n­i­tions of flows added so that it can be numer­i­cal­ly sim­u­lat­ed).

Minsky 1.0 Demo #3 Godley-Goodwin Integration

Using time lags, enter­ing Greek char­ac­ters and sub­scripts, build­ing a dynam­ic mod­el using the flow­chart part of the pro­gram, using inte­gra­tion blocks in dynam­ic mod­els, mak­ing x‑y graphs as well as graphs of vari­ables against time.

Min­sky file: GodleySim02.mky (the same mod­el as in the pre­vi­ous video, but using time con­stants rather than arbi­trary num­bers for sys­tem para­me­ters); GodleyGoodwin01 and GodleyGoodwinSim01 (adding a Good­win mod­el of pro­duc­tion using the flow­chart aspects of the pro­gram, and adding XY charts, slow­ing down the sim­u­la­tion speed)

Minsky 1.0 Demo #4 Godley-Goodwin Integration

Start­ing to inte­grate a mon­e­tary and a phys­i­cal mod­el, using slid­ers to vary para­me­ters dur­ing a sim­u­la­tion.

Min­sky files: GodleyGoodwinSimInt01 (begin­ning to inte­grate the two mod­els: mak­ing the wage a mon­e­tary phe­nom­e­non)

Minsky 1.0 Demo #5 Godley Goodwin Integration #2

Doing it right: start­ing by mod­i­fy­ing the real cycli­cal mod­el to include mon­e­tary vari­ables.

Min­sky files: GodleyGoodwinSimInt01C (adding Price to the Good­win mod­el before attempt­ing the inte­gra­tion).

Minsky 1.0 Demo #6 Godley-Goodwin Integration

Con­tin­u­ing the process.

Min­sky files: GodleyGoodwinSimInt01D (com­plet­ing the inte­gra­tion)

Minsky 1.0 Demo #7 Godley-Goodwin Integration #4

Con­tin­u­ing the process.

Min­sky files include GodleyGoodwinSimInt03, where I add a lin­ear invest­ment func­tion to the lin­ear wage change func­tion that is the core of the Good­win mod­el.

Minsky 1.0 Demo #8 Godley-Goodwin Integration #5

Get­ting cycles in the mon­e­tary econ­o­my as well as the phys­i­cal. Intro­duc­ing an invest­ment func­tion as well as a wage change func­tion. Show­ing the debt-defla­tion mod­el.

Min­sky files include DebtDeflation02, which is the mon­e­tary ver­sion of my 1995 debt-cri­sis mod­el in "Finance and Eco­nom­ic Break­down"

Minsky 1.0 Demo #09 Multiple Godley Tables

Com­bin­ing MMT and MCT with two God­ley Tables, one for the Cen­tral Bank, the oth­er for Pri­vate Banks. Min­sky's built-in log­ic to main­tain con­sis­ten­cy between assets and lia­bil­i­ties across mul­ti­ple God­ley Tables. A poten­tial­ly sur­pris­ing result about the rela­tion­ship between the change in pri­vate debt and the change in pub­lic debt.

Min­sky files: MinskyOnePointZeroDemo09MultipleGodleyTables (com­bines MMT and MCT and shows that the change in pri­vate debt and the change in pub­lic debt are not of equal and oppo­site mag­ni­tudes in a closed econ­o­my).

Minsky 1.0 Demo #10 Zooming

Group­ing enti­ties, zoom­ing in to see a group, edit­ing a group, using the Lorenz Strange Attrac­tor as first exam­ple, and my mod­el of debt-defla­tion as the sec­ond.

Minsky 1.0 Demo #11 Bugs

Bugs and how to cope with them.

Minsky 1.0 Demo #12 Lorenz model

Using the flow­chart side of the pro­gram to build the famous Lorenz mod­el. Chang­ing the Runge-Kut­ta para­me­ters to get a smoother sim­u­la­tion. Set­ting ranges on a graph.

Minsky 1.0 Demo13 # Lorenz model with Sliders

Using slid­ers to vary para­me­ters in a mod­el while it runs.

Min­sky files: Vari­a­tions on Lorenz, espe­cial­ly LorenzWithSliders02.

Minsky 1.0 Demo #14 Competitors

How does Min­sky stack up as a sys­tem dynam­ics pro­gram com­pared to the estab­lished play­ers Simulink, Ven­sim, and Vis­sim? It does­n't have the pow­er of these estab­lished pro­grams of course–matching the fea­ture set of even Ven­sim would require tens thou­sands more hours of pro­gram­ming time, let alone that of Vis­sim or the mar­ket leader Simulink. But on a user-friend­li­ness scale, I think it's easy to see that Min­sky is much eas­i­er to use than Ven­sim, sig­nif­i­cant­ly eas­i­er than Simulink, and with­in reach of Vissim–though it lacks some basic edit­ing fea­tures.

Minsky 1.0 Demo #15 Why Godley Tables?

This is the clinch­er. If you want to mod­el mon­e­tary dynam­ics, there is no oth­er pro­gram that offers any­thing like the God­ley Table for mod­el­ing the dou­ble-entry flows that char­ac­ter­ize the finan­cial sys­tem. A flow­chart is an inher­ent­ly weak tool for build­ing a mon­e­tary mod­el..

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