https://youtu.be/IJQvSccXGWM
追加：
ex.Ep 1. The MMT Lens with Special Guest Stephanie Kelton (FULL EPISODE)
https://love-and-theft-2014.blogspot.com/2023/05/ep-1.html
50:55~
2023/04/29 Funny Moneyさんのツイート Up on YouTube now with our first big episode with special guest @StephanieKelton!
Ep 1. The MMT Lens with Special Guest Stephanie Kelton (FULL EPISODE)
元動画の11:00から
B:
I want to start at the very beginning. It's a good place to start. Stephanie. What is the federal deficit?
I want to start at the very beginning. It's a good place to start. Stephanie. What is the federal deficit?
K:
Okay. It's the difference between two numbers. Like in this thing that you hear, you see headlines, media hand-wringing, this word that's like omnipresent, Right. And at the end of the day, it boils down to this rather benign thing. It's literally the difference between two numbers. One of the numbers is, how many dollars the government puts out there each year. So we call that outlays. If you go to the Congressional Budget Report, you look up the tables, it'll say total outlays, and it will give you a number. And those outlays could be for things like military spending, health care, infrastructure and all that. So think of dollars flowing out of government. That's one number. The other number is total revenue. That's mostly through taxation. So it's how much the government collects in personal income tax, corporate income tax, payroll tax, so how much comes in each year. So the difference between what goes out and what comes in. So if outlays are greater, then receipts, then revenues, then we record on the ledger a deficit. So putting really simple numbers to it, you guys, if the government outlays are 100 and revenues are 90, then we call that a deficit and we record somewhere that the government has run a deficit. Somebody writes minus ten on the books. So that's the definition. That's what we're talking about. But what we forget and it's really, really important and you would think somebody would take the trouble to mention this is that if the government puts out more than it takes away from us, that it's really just making a deposit. So if it puts a hundred in and only takes 90 out, what it's really doing is depositing $10 into some other part of the economy. In other words, the government's deficit is always matched dollar for dollar by a financial surplus. On the other side of every deficit lies a surplus of equal size that goes into some other part of the economy. So when people get very upset at the notion that the government has done this awful thing called running a fiscal deficit, what they really failed to recognize, and it's partly due to the economics profession, which doesn't do a good job informing people, journalists, pundits, talking heads on TV. What people don't realize is that the government's deficit is a financial contribution to some other part of the economy. So in a financial sense, every deficit is good for someone. The question is, you know, for whom? What are those deficits being used to accomplish and who's on the other side of that windfall? Where are those dollars going? Who has them now?
B:
So a lot of people think of the word deficit and they imagine their own household budget. If I take out your credit card and I spend a bunch of money on it's money I don't have, I have to pay that money back. Now, you make this great distinction that the government is not a household. We have a fiat currency. The U.S. government is a currency issuer. I love that. You say their red ink is our black ink to describe that, a lot of people hear deficit and assume debt. And moreover, they assume foreign debt like we've taken out a credit card with the Bank of China. Can you make the distinction for everyone? Because it's unfortunately a super common one between foreign debt and the national deficit.
4:00
K:
Yeah. Even, you know, journalists and pundits and members of Congress will sometimes conflate the deficit and the debt. And I have to tell you, Jessica, I think I wish we didn't use either of these words. I think both are poor words to use to describe what's really happening. So I would prefer to just use the term net spending for the outcome. Whatever the difference between outlays and revenues is each year, we just call it net spending. Sometimes it's positive, sometimes it's negative. The debt so called is the cumulative running total of all of the prior instances where the government engaged in net spending of a plus or minus. So let me give you an example. If the government puts in 100 and takes out 90. We've already established that we call that a fiscal deficit. We write minus ten. Now, if they do that year after year after year after year, we'll have a different number. We'll add up all those minus tens, and that will give us what we refer to as the so-called national debt. What happens is that each year the government's budget happens to end in a deficit, the government sells treasuries. These are financial instruments that are available to the rest of us, including to China. People who have dollars can trade those dollars in for what I think amounts to a just another kind of dollar. It's an interest bearing US dollar called a government bond, a U.S. treasury. And so China has access to that market. You and I have access to that market either investors, pension funds and the like. And it's the total outstanding stock of U.S. Treasuries that we call the national debt. And that word is so loaded, right, because people hear the word debt and they think, oh, my God, I know if I took on trillions of dollars of debt, it would be the end of the world for me personally. But the federal government, as you just said, doesn't have a budget that operates like a household. This thing called the debt is not akin to personal debt. It doesn't work like when we take on personal debt. If you got yourself in a pickle with credit card debt, you've got to find dollars to repay your creditor, Visa, MasterCard, whoever. When the federal government sells treasuries, what is it obligated to pay at the end of the day, U.S. dollars to bondholders? Well, where do U.S. dollars come from? Well, it turns out the US government is the issuer of the US dollar, so it's a very different beast. When we talk about debt for a household versus this thing that we unfortunately call debt for the federal government, what it really is is just a financial asset for the rest of us, part of our wealth, part of our savings. If you're lucky to get lucky enough to own some of these congratulations. Right. This is a safe financial instrument that pays you interest for the benefit of parting with your dollars for some period of time.
A:
That's a great distinction. And so when we think about the deficit being the difference between these two numbers, we think about the debt being these treasuries. Right. Both of those are coming from the federal government. One thing that helped me when I first started learning about this is a visual that really kind of brings in this paradigm shift. And one of the classic ones for those that are learning this perspective, this lens into public budgets is this classic sectoral balances image. Can you tell us a little bit about this image and what it's what it's showing us?
K:
Yep. So what it's showing you, I'm going to just take one quick step back and say something else about the debt, so-called, which I think it's important to say when I said it's the cumulative total. So what we want to recognize is that those are all of the dollars that the government has spent into the economy over the history of the country's existence and not taxed back. So that's what it is, right? It's the dollars that have been spent by government and not taxed back. It's really just part of the broader U.S. money supply. Those treasuries are really interest bearing dollars. They circulate. They function in many ways like money. So when you look at this graph, what do you see? All right. This is a graph. It's actual data. Nobody made this up. Okay. This is real historical data going back to the 1950s, early 1950s. And what the graph does is to break the economy into three big chunks. We could disaggregate it further, but this makes the point pretty clearly and nicely. One chunk here that you see depicted in blue is the U.S. private sector. That's all the households and all the businesses in the U.S. economy, our private sector. What you see depicted in red here is the government sector. That's federal, state and local. That's government here in the U.S. And then there's everything else, which is what's outside of the U.S. that's shown in green, and that's the rest of the world. So what the graph shows you is how dollars flow in and out of sectors over time. So if a sector if one part of the economy experiences net outflows, in other words, it pays out more dollars than come in during that period of time, you're going to see that sector below zero. It's going to have a deficit. If a sector is receiving more dollars than it is paying out, it's going to have a surplus as you're going to see it above zero there. So the graph is neat and tidy and it may strike people who are watching this that, you know, wow, they're kind of a mirror of one another. And that's an important part of the story because every payment that flows out of one sector has to go somewhere, right? And it has to be received by some other sector. So any deficit has to result in, as we said earlier, a surplus in some other part of the economy. And so everything has to net to zero. Another striking feature, remember this goes back to the early 1950s so that you notice the government is almost always in red. Government is almost always the one in the deficit position, whereas the private sector is almost always above zero with a surplus and we don't have the time, I don't think, to get into the whole rest of the world and trade imbalances and why that changes over time. But the important point here is that those government deficits are the thing that is producing the surpluses that you see above zero. So if you just look, let's see how far back this goes. There you go. So you have the covered spending, right? Those enormous deficits that were run to try to support the economy through the pandemic and so forth. And people really got concerned at the size of the government's deficit during that period. But if you look at this in the context of the whole picture, not just what's happening to the government's budget, but look up, right, look what's happening to everybody else, and you'll see that those government deficits were instrumental in keeping the private sector afloat. Right. So you can see that big spike in the private sector's financial surplus in that period, while those surpluses were made possible by virtue of the government outlays greater than receipts. So the government's deficit is producing those surpluses.
A:
And I think what's really key that you mentioned is that this is not a fixed thing, but rather it's up for grabs. Right. That that deficit could be going to one place to the to the most wealthy, the most powerful, to the military, whatever, or it could be going to the things we need to improve quality of life and and improve the standard of living for working people, for communities of color, historically marginalized communities, whoever that may be. Right. Like, it's a political question of where those deficits go. And I think that's so vital.
K:
And the answer is you're right for sure. And just to be clear, in the pandemic, they went to both places, right? They went to both. It wasn't as if Congress said, well, we're going to have to respond to this, you know, health crisis and this economic crisis. And so we're going to make a commitment to with the CARES Act, $2.2 trillion in March of 2020. They didn't say, I guess it's time to finally cut the military budget because we're going to have to, you know, commit a lot of money to supporting the economy because of the pandemic and the economic fallout and so forth. Now, they continued to fund and even more generously so when the defense reauthorization Act comes up, they put more money into the military and supported the economy with, you know, fiscal package after fiscal package after fiscal package, some 5 trillion, even more than 5 trillion in the span of about 12 months time.
A:
Yeah. So, I mean, you know, that really kind of for the organizers and people in politics listening right like that just shows that it's up for grabs. And like some like AOC and some other public officials say these budgets are in many ways moral documents that say, you know, what do we want to prioritize.
K:
You bet.
ステファニー・ケルトンとの公共予算
https://youtu.be/IJQvSccXGWM
0:02I want to start at the very beginning.
0:04It's a good place to start.
0:06Stephanie.
0:07What is the federal deficit?
0:11Okay.
0:13It's the difference between two numbers.
0:15Like in this thing that you hear, you see headlines,
0:19media hand-wringing, this word that's like omnipresent, Right.
0:24And at the end of the day, it boils down to this rather benign thing.
0:30It's literally the difference between two numbers.
0:33One of the numbers is,
0:35how many dollars the government puts out there each year.
0:40So we call that outlays.
0:42If you go to the Congressional Budget Report, you look up the tables,
0:45it'll say total outlays, and it will give you a number.
0:48And those outlays could be
0:49for things like military spending, health care, infrastructure and all that.
0:53So think of dollars flowing out of government.
0:56That's one number.
0:58The other number is total revenue.
1:00That's mostly through taxation.
1:02So it's how much the government collects in personal income tax,
1:05corporate income tax, payroll tax, so how much comes in each year.
1:11So the difference between what goes out and what comes in.
1:14So if outlays are greater, then receipts, then revenues,
1:20then we record on the ledger a deficit.
1:25So putting really simple numbers to it, you guys, if the government outlays are
1:30100 and revenues are 90, then we call that a deficit
1:35and we record somewhere that the government has run a deficit.
1:39Somebody writes minus ten on the books.
1:43So that's the definition.
1:45That's what we're talking about.
1:47But what we forget and it's really, really important and you would think
1:51somebody would take the trouble to mention this is that if the government puts out
1:56more than it takes away from us, that it's really just making a deposit.
2:01So if it puts a hundred in and only takes 90 out,
2:04what it's really doing is depositing $10 into some other part of the economy.
2:11In other words, the government's deficit is always matched
2:14dollar for dollar by a financial surplus.
2:18On the other side of every deficit lies a surplus of equal size
2:24that goes into some other part of the economy.
2:26So when people get very upset at the notion that the government has done
2:31this awful thing called running a fiscal deficit,
2:35what they really failed to recognize, and it's
2:39partly due to the economics profession, which doesn't do a good job informing
2:43people, journalists, pundits, talking heads on TV.
2:47What people don't realize is that the government's deficit
2:51is a financial contribution to some other part of the economy.
2:54So in a financial sense,
2:58every deficit is good for someone.
3:01The question is, you know, for whom?
3:03What are those
3:03deficits being used to accomplish and who's on the other side of that windfall?
3:07Where are those dollars going? Who has them now?
ステファニー・ケルトンとの公共予算
https://youtu.be/IJQvSccXGWM
2023/04/29 Funny Moneyさんのツイート Up on YouTube now with our first big episode with special guest @StephanieKelton!
Ep 1. The MMT Lens with Special Guest Stephanie Kelton (FULL EPISODE)
元動画の11:00から
B:
最初から始めたいです。始めるには良い場所です。ステファニー。連邦赤字とは.
最初から始めたいです。始めるには良い場所です。ステファニー。連邦赤字とは.
K:
わかった。2 つの数値の差です。あなたが耳にするこのことのように、あなたは見出し、メディアの手の震え、どこにでもあるようなこの言葉を見ます。そして結局のところ、それはこのどちらかといえば無害なことに行き着きます。文字通り、2 つの数値の差です。数字の 1 つは、政府が毎年そこに出す金額です。だから私たちはそれを支出と呼んでいます。議会予算報告書にアクセスして表を調べると、総支出が表示され、数字が表示されます。そして、それらの支出は、軍事費、ヘルスケア、インフラストラクチャーなどに向けられる可能性があります. ですから、政府から流出するドルについて考えてみてください。それが1つの数字です。もう 1 つの数字は総収入です。それは主に税金によるものです。つまり、政府が個人所得税で徴収する金額です。法人所得税、給与税、毎年どれだけ入ってくるか。つまり、出て行くものと入ってくるものの差です。したがって、支出が大きく、次に収入、次に収入が多い場合、元帳に赤字を記録します。非常に単純な数字で言えば、政府の支出が 100 で歳入が 90 の場合、それを赤字と呼び、政府が赤字を出していることをどこかに記録します。誰かが本にマイナス10と書いています。それが定義です。それが私たちが話していることです。しかし、私たちが忘れていること、それは本当に、本当に重要であり、政府が私たちから奪う以上のものを出している場合、それは本当に預金をしているだけだということを誰かがわざわざ言及するだろうと思うでしょう. 100 を入れて 90 しか出さないとしたら、実際に行っているのは、経済の他の部分に 10 ドルを預けることです。言い換えれば、政府の赤字は、常に財政黒字と一致します。すべての赤字の反対側には、同規模の黒字があり、経済の他の部分に流れ込んでいます。人々が政府が財政赤字という恐ろしいことをしたという考えに非常に腹を立てているとき、彼らは本当に認識できていませんでした。それは部分的には経済専門家によるものであり、人々に適切な情報を提供していません.ジャーナリスト、評論家、テレビの話題。人々が気付いていないのは、政府の赤字が経済の他の部分への財政的貢献であるということです。したがって、財政的な意味では、すべての赤字は誰かにとって良いことです。問題は、あなたが知っている、誰のため？これらの赤字は何を達成するために使用されており、その棚ぼたの反対側にいるのは誰ですか? それらのドルはどこに行くのですか？誰が今持っていますか？
B:
多くの人が赤字という言葉を思い浮かべ、自分の家計を想像します。私があなたのクレジットカードを取り出し、私が持っていないお金にたくさんのお金を使ったら、私はそのお金を返さなければなりません. さて、あなたは政府が家庭ではないことを大きく区別しています。私たちは法定通貨を持っています。米国政府は通貨発行体です。私はそれが好きです。あなたは彼らの赤いインクが私たちの黒いインクであることを説明すると言いますが、多くの人が赤字を聞いて借金を想定しています. さらに、中国銀行でクレジット カードを利用したように、彼らは対外債務を想定しています。みんなの見分け方は？残念ながら、それは対外債務と国家赤字の間の非常に一般的なものだからです.
4:00
K:
うん。ご存知のように、ジャーナリストや専門家、国会議員でさえ、赤字と債務を混同することがあります。そして、ジェシカ、あなたに言わなければならないのですが、これらの言葉のどちらも使わなければよかったと思います. どちらも、実際に起こっていることを説明するのに使うには不適切な言葉だと思います。したがって、私は結果に対して単に純支出という用語を使用したいと思います。毎年の支出と収入の差が何であれ、私たちはそれを純支出と呼んでいます。ポジティブな時もあれば、ネガティブな時もある。いわゆる債務は、政府がプラスまたはマイナスの純支出に関与した以前のすべてのインスタンスの累計です。では、例を挙げましょう。政府が 100 を入れて 90 を出すとしたら、それを財政赤字と呼ぶことはすでに確立しています。マイナス10と書きます。今、彼らが毎年それを毎年行うと、異なる数になります。これらのマイナス 10 をすべて合計すると、いわゆる国家債務と呼ばれるものが得られます。何が起こるかというと、毎年政府の予算がたまたま赤字になり、政府は国庫を売却します。これらは、中国を含む私たちの残りの部分が利用できる金融商品です。ドルを持っている人は、そのドルを別の種類のドルに交換することができます。それは、国債、米国財務省と呼ばれる米ドルの利子です。そのため、中国はその市場にアクセスできます。あなたと私は、投資家、年金基金などの市場にアクセスできます。そして、私たちが国債と呼んでいるのは、米国債の未払い残高の合計です。そして、その言葉はとてもロードされていますね。人々は借金という言葉を聞いて、ああ、なんてこった、何兆ドルもの借金を背負ったら、それは私個人にとって世界の終わりになるだろうと思うからです. しかし、あなたが今言ったように、連邦政府には家計のような予算はありません。この負債と呼ばれるものは、個人の負債とは異なります。私たちが個人的な借金を負うときのようには機能しません。クレジット カードの借金で窮地に立たされた場合、Visa や MasterCard などの債権者に返済するための資金を見つけなければなりません。連邦政府が国庫を売却するとき、最終的に国債保有者に支払う義務があるのは米ドルですか? では、米ドルはどこから来るのでしょうか。米国政府が米ドルの発行者であることが判明したため、これは非常に異なる獣です。残念ながら連邦政府の借金と呼ばれるものに対して、家計の借金について話すとき、それは実際には私たちの残りの部分のための単なる金融資産であり、私たちの富の一部であり、私たちの貯蓄の一部です. 運が良ければ、これらのお祝いの言葉をいくつか所有できます。右。これは、一定期間ドルを手放す利益のために利息を支払う安全な金融商品です。
A:
それは大きな違いです。赤字がこれら 2 つの数値の差であると考えると、債務は国庫であると考えることができます。右。どちらも連邦政府からのものです。これについて学び始めたときに役立ったことの 1 つは、このパラダイム シフトを実際にもたらすビジュアルです。そして、この視点を学んでいる人々にとって古典的なものの 1 つは、この公的予算へのレンズがこの古典的な部門別収支のイメージです。この画像と、それが私たちに見せているものについて少し教えていただけますか?
K:
うん。それがあなたに示していることは、私は一歩下がって、債務について別のことを言うつもりです. したがって、私たちが認識したいのは、これらは国の存在の歴史を通じて政府が経済に費やしてきたすべてのドルであり、課税されていないということです. そういうことですよね？それは、政府によって費やされ、課税されていないドルです。それは実際には、より広範な米国のマネーサプライの一部にすぎません。それらの国庫は、実際には利子付きのドルです。それらは循環します。それらはお金のように多くの点で機能します。では、このグラフを見ると、何が見えますか? わかった。これはグラフです。実際のデータです。誰もこれを作りませんでした。わかった。これは 1950 年代にさかのぼる実際の履歴データです。1950年代初頭。グラフが行うことは、経済を 3 つの大きな塊に分割することです。さらに細分化することもできますが、これにより要点がかなり明確かつ適切になります。ここで青色で示されているチャンクの 1 つは、米国の民間部門です。それは、米国経済、私たちの民間部門のすべての世帯とすべての企業です。ここで赤く描かれているのは政府部門です。それは、連邦、州、および地方です。それはここ米国の政府です そしてそれ以外のすべてがあります 緑色で示されているのは米国以外のものです それは世界の残りの部分です グラフが示すのは、時間の経過とともにどのようにドルがセクターに出入りするかです。したがって、セクターが経済の一部で純流出を経験した場合、つまり、その期間中に入ってくるよりも多くのドルを支払う場合、あなたは. そのセクターがゼロ以下になることを確認します。赤字になります。セクターが支払いよりも多くのドルを受け取っている場合、ゼロより上に表示されるため、黒字になります。グラフはきちんと整理されており、これを見ている人は、うわー、彼らはお互いの鏡のようなものだと思うかもしれません。あるセクターから流出するすべての支払いはどこかに行かなければならないので、それは物語の重要な部分ですよね? そして、それは他のセクターによって受け取られなければなりません。したがって、赤字は、先に述べたように、経済の他の部分で黒字にならなければなりません。したがって、すべてがゼロになる必要があります。もう 1 つの顕著な特徴は、これが 1950 年代初頭にさかのぼることを思い出してください。そのため、政府はほとんどの場合赤字であることがわかります。ほとんどの場合、政府は赤字の立場にあります。一方、民間部門はほとんどの場合黒字でゼロを超えており、残りの世界全体と貿易の不均衡、そしてそれが時間とともに変化する理由について理解する時間はないと思います. しかしここで重要な点は、政府の赤字がゼロを超える黒字を生み出しているということです。ですから、これがどこまでさかのぼるか見てみましょう。ほらね。それで、あなたはカバーされた支出を持っていますよね？パンデミックなどを通じて経済を支えようとして実行された巨額の赤字。そして人々は、この時期の政府の赤字の大きさに本当に懸念を抱きました。しかし、これを全体像の文脈で見ると、政府の予算に何が起こっているかだけでなく、他のすべての人に何が起こっているかを見てください。そして、これらの政府の赤字が民間部門を存続させるのに役立ったことがわかります。右。この期間に民間部門の財政黒字が急増したことがわかりますが、これらの黒字は、政府の歳出が収入を上回ったおかげで可能になりました。つまり、政府の赤字が黒字を生み出しているのです。
A:
そして、あなたが言及した本当に重要なことは、これは固定されたものではなく、手に入れることができるということだと思います. 右。その赤字は、最も裕福な、最も強力な、軍隊などに行く可能性があるか、生活の質を改善し、働くための生活水準を向上させるために必要なものに行く可能性があります人々、色のコミュニティ、歴史的に周縁化されたコミュニティ、それが誰であれ。右。同様に、これらの赤字がどこに行くかというのは政治的な問題です。そして、それはとても重要なことだと思います。
K:
そして答えは、あなたが確かに正しいということです。はっきりさせておくと、パンデミックでは、彼らは両方の場所に行きましたよね? 彼らは両方に行きました。議会が、健康危機と経済危機に対応しなければならないと言っているわけではありませんでした。そこで、2020 年 3 月に CARES 法で 2 兆 2,000 億ドルを投入することを約束します。 、パンデミックや経済的影響などのために、経済を支えるために多額のお金を費やしています。現在、彼らは資金提供を続けており、さらに寛大に防衛再認可法が制定されると、軍により多くの資金を投入し、財政パッケージを次から次へと財政パッケージで経済を支えました。
A:
うん。つまり、つまり、主催者や政治家がそのように正しく聞いていることは、それが手に入るということを示しているだけです。そして、AOCのような一部や他の公務員は、これらの予算は多くの点で道徳的な文書であり、何を優先したいかを述べていると言っています.
K:
あなたは賭けます。
0:02I want to start at the very beginning.
0:04It's a good place to start.
0:06Stephanie.
0:07What is the federal deficit?
0:11Okay.
0:13It's the difference between two numbers.
0:15Like in this thing that you hear, you see headlines,
0:19media hand-wringing, this word that's like omnipresent, Right.
0:24And at the end of the day, it boils down to this rather benign thing.
0:30It's literally the difference between two numbers.
0:33One of the numbers is,
0:35how many dollars the government puts out there each year.
0:40So we call that outlays.
0:42If you go to the Congressional Budget Report, you look up the tables,
0:45it'll say total outlays, and it will give you a number.
0:48And those outlays could be
0:49for things like military spending, health care, infrastructure and all that.
0:53So think of dollars flowing out of government.
0:56That's one number.
0:58The other number is total revenue.
1:00That's mostly through taxation.
1:02So it's how much the government collects in personal income tax,
1:05corporate income tax, payroll tax, so how much comes in each year.
1:11So the difference between what goes out and what comes in.
1:14So if outlays are greater, then receipts, then revenues,
1:20then we record on the ledger a deficit.
1:25So putting really simple numbers to it, you guys, if the government outlays are
1:30100 and revenues are 90, then we call that a deficit
1:35and we record somewhere that the government has run a deficit.
1:39Somebody writes minus ten on the books.
1:43So that's the definition.
1:45That's what we're talking about.
1:47But what we forget and it's really, really important and you would think
1:51somebody would take the trouble to mention this is that if the government puts out
1:56more than it takes away from us, that it's really just making a deposit.
2:01So if it puts a hundred in and only takes 90 out,
2:04what it's really doing is depositing $10 into some other part of the economy.
2:11In other words, the government's deficit is always matched
2:14dollar for dollar by a financial surplus.
2:18On the other side of every deficit lies a surplus of equal size
2:24that goes into some other part of the economy.
2:26So when people get very upset at the notion that the government has done
2:31this awful thing called running a fiscal deficit,
2:35what they really failed to recognize, and it's
2:39partly due to the economics profession, which doesn't do a good job informing
2:43people, journalists, pundits, talking heads on TV.
2:47What people don't realize is that the government's deficit
2:51is a financial contribution to some other part of the economy.
2:54So in a financial sense,
2:58every deficit is good for someone.
3:01The question is, you know, for whom?
3:03What are those
3:03deficits being used to accomplish and who's on the other side of that windfall?
3:07Where are those dollars going? Who has them now?
B:
3:11So a lot of people think of
3:12the word deficit and they imagine their own household budget.
3:17If I take out your credit card and I spend a bunch of money on it's money
3:22I don't have, I have to pay that money back.
3:25Now, you make this great distinction that the government is not a household.
3:30We have a fiat currency.
3:32The U.S. government is a currency issuer.
3:34I love that.
3:35You say their red ink is our black ink to describe that,
3:39a lot of people hear deficit and assume debt.
3:44And moreover, they assume foreign debt
3:46like we've taken out a credit card with the Bank of China.
3:49Can you make the distinction for everyone?
3:52Because it's unfortunately a super common
3:54one between foreign debt and the national deficit.
3:11So a lot of people think of
3:12the word deficit and they imagine their own household budget.
3:17If I take out your credit card and I spend a bunch of money on it's money
3:22I don't have, I have to pay that money back.
3:25Now, you make this great distinction that the government is not a household.
3:30We have a fiat currency.
3:32The U.S. government is a currency issuer.
3:34I love that.
3:35You say their red ink is our black ink to describe that,
3:39a lot of people hear deficit and assume debt.
3:44And moreover, they assume foreign debt
3:46like we've taken out a credit card with the Bank of China.
3:49Can you make the distinction for everyone?
3:52Because it's unfortunately a super common
3:54one between foreign debt and the national deficit.
3:58Yeah.
3:58Even, you know, journalists and pundits and members of Congress
4:02will sometimes conflate the deficit and the debt.
4:05And I have to tell you, Jessica,
4:06I think I wish we didn't use either of these words.
4:09I think both are poor
4:13words to
4:13use to describe what's really happening.
4:17So I would prefer to just use the term net spending for the outcome.
4:22Whatever the difference between outlays and revenues is each year,
4:26we just call it net spending.
4:28Sometimes it's positive, sometimes it's negative.
4:31The debt so called is the cumulative
4:37running total of all of the prior instances
4:42where the government engaged in net spending of a plus or minus.
4:47So let me give you an example.
4:49If the government puts in 100 and takes out 90.
4:52We've already established that we call that a fiscal deficit.
4:55We write minus ten.
4:57Now, if they do that year after year after year after year,
5:01we'll have a different number.
5:03We'll add up all those minus tens, and that will give us what we refer to
5:07as the so-called national debt.
5:09What happens is that each year the government's budget happens
5:13to end in a deficit,
5:15the government sells treasuries.
5:18These are financial instruments that are available to the rest of us,
5:22including to China.
5:24People who have dollars can trade those dollars in
5:27for what I think amounts to a just another kind of dollar.
5:32It's an interest bearing US dollar called a government bond, a U.S.
5:37treasury.
5:38And so China has access to that market.
5:41You and I have access to that market either investors, pension funds
5:45and the like.
5:46And it's the total outstanding stock of U.S.
5:51Treasuries that we call the national debt.
5:55And that word is so loaded, right, because people hear the word debt
5:59and they think, oh, my God, I know if I took on trillions of dollars of debt,
6:03it would be the end of the world for me personally.
6:07But the federal government, as you just
6:08said, doesn't have a budget that operates like a household.
6:12This thing called the debt is not akin to personal debt.
6:16It doesn't work like when we take on personal debt.
6:19If you got yourself in a pickle with credit card debt,
6:22you've got to find dollars to repay your creditor, Visa, MasterCard, whoever.
6:27When the federal government sells treasuries,
6:30what is it obligated to pay at the end of the day, U.S.
6:33dollars to bondholders?
6:35Well, where do U.S.
6:36dollars come from?
6:37Well, it turns out the US government is the issuer of the US dollar,
6:42so it's a very different beast.
6:47When we talk about debt for a household versus
6:50this thing that we unfortunately call debt
6:53for the federal government, what it really is is just
6:56a financial asset for the rest of us, part of our wealth, part of our savings.
7:00If you're lucky to get lucky enough to own some of these congratulations.
7:05Right.
7:05This is a safe financial instrument
7:09that pays you interest for the benefit of
7:15parting with your dollars
7:16for some period of time.
A:
7:19That's a great distinction.
7:20And so when we think about the deficit being the difference between
7:24these two numbers, we think about the debt being these treasuries.
7:29Right.
7:29Both of those are coming from the federal government.
7:32One thing that helped me when I first started learning about
7:35this is a visual that really kind of brings in this paradigm shift.
7:39And one of the classic ones for those that are learning this perspective,
7:43this lens into public budgets is this classic sectoral balances image.
7:49Can you tell us a little bit about
7:51this image and what it's what it's showing us?
7:19That's a great distinction.
7:20And so when we think about the deficit being the difference between
7:24these two numbers, we think about the debt being these treasuries.
7:29Right.
7:29Both of those are coming from the federal government.
7:32One thing that helped me when I first started learning about
7:35this is a visual that really kind of brings in this paradigm shift.
7:39And one of the classic ones for those that are learning this perspective,
7:43this lens into public budgets is this classic sectoral balances image.
7:49Can you tell us a little bit about
7:51this image and what it's what it's showing us?
K:
Yep.
7:55So what it's showing you,
7:58I'm going to just take one quick step back
8:00and say something else about the debt, so-called,
8:03which I think it's important to say when I said it's the cumulative total.
8:07So what we want to recognize is that those are all of the dollars that
8:12the government has spent into the economy
8:15over the history of the country's
8:19existence and not taxed back.
8:22So that's what it is, right?
8:23It's the dollars that have been spent by government and not taxed back.
8:27It's really just part of the broader U.S.
8:29money supply.
8:30Those treasuries are really interest bearing dollars.
8:32They circulate.
8:34They function in many ways like money.
8:37So when you look at this graph, what do you see?
8:39All right.
8:40This is a graph. It's actual data.
8:42Nobody made this up. Okay.
8:44This is real historical data going back to the 1950s, early 1950s.
8:49And what the graph does is to break the economy into three big chunks.
8:55We could disaggregate it further, but this makes the point
8:58pretty clearly and nicely.
9:00One chunk here that you see depicted in blue is the U.S.
9:05private sector.
9:06That's all the households and all the businesses in the U.S.
9:09economy, our private sector.
9:12What you see depicted in red here is the government sector.
9:16That's federal, state and local.
9:17That's government here in the U.S.
9:20And then there's everything else, which is what's outside of the U.S.
9:24that's shown in green, and that's the rest of the world.
9:28So what the graph shows you is
9:32how dollars flow
9:35in and out of sectors over time.
9:39So if a sector if one part of the economy experiences
9:44net outflows, in other words, it pays out more dollars than come in during
9:49that period of time, you're going to see that sector below zero.
9:52It's going to have a deficit.
9:54If a sector is receiving more dollars than it is paying out, it's
9:59going to have a surplus as you're going to see it above zero there.
10:03So the graph is neat and tidy and it may strike people
10:07who are watching this that, you know, wow, they're kind of a mirror of one another.
10:12And that's an important part of the story because every payment
10:16that flows out of one sector has to go somewhere, right?
10:20And it has to be received by some other sector.
10:23So any deficit has to result
10:28in, as we said earlier, a surplus in some other part of the economy.
10:32And so everything has to net to zero.
10:35Another striking feature, remember this goes back to the early 1950s
10:39so that you notice the government is almost always in red.
10:42Government is almost always the one in the deficit position,
10:45whereas the private sector is almost always above zero with a surplus
10:51and we don't have the time, I don't think, to get into the whole rest
10:55of the world and trade imbalances and why that changes over time.
10:58But the important point here is that those government deficits
11:04are the thing that is producing the surpluses that you see above zero.
11:09So if you just look, let's see how far back this goes.
11:14There you go.
11:14So you have the covered spending, right?
11:17Those enormous deficits that were run to try
11:20to support the economy through the pandemic and so forth.
11:24And people really got concerned at the size of the government's
11:28deficit during that period.
11:30But if you look at this in the context of the whole picture,
11:35not just what's happening to the government's budget,
11:38but look up, right, look what's happening to everybody else,
11:42and you'll see that those government deficits were instrumental
11:46in keeping the private sector afloat. Right.
11:50So you can see that big spike in the private sector's financial surplus
11:54in that period, while those surpluses were made possible
11:57by virtue of the government outlays greater than receipts.
12:02So the government's deficit is producing those surpluses.
7:55So what it's showing you,
7:58I'm going to just take one quick step back
8:00and say something else about the debt, so-called,
8:03which I think it's important to say when I said it's the cumulative total.
8:07So what we want to recognize is that those are all of the dollars that
8:12the government has spent into the economy
8:15over the history of the country's
8:19existence and not taxed back.
8:22So that's what it is, right?
8:23It's the dollars that have been spent by government and not taxed back.
8:27It's really just part of the broader U.S.
8:29money supply.
8:30Those treasuries are really interest bearing dollars.
8:32They circulate.
8:34They function in many ways like money.
8:37So when you look at this graph, what do you see?
8:39All right.
8:40This is a graph. It's actual data.
8:42Nobody made this up. Okay.
8:44This is real historical data going back to the 1950s, early 1950s.
8:49And what the graph does is to break the economy into three big chunks.
8:55We could disaggregate it further, but this makes the point
8:58pretty clearly and nicely.
9:00One chunk here that you see depicted in blue is the U.S.
9:05private sector.
9:06That's all the households and all the businesses in the U.S.
9:09economy, our private sector.
9:12What you see depicted in red here is the government sector.
9:16That's federal, state and local.
9:17That's government here in the U.S.
9:20And then there's everything else, which is what's outside of the U.S.
9:24that's shown in green, and that's the rest of the world.
9:28So what the graph shows you is
9:32how dollars flow
9:35in and out of sectors over time.
9:39So if a sector if one part of the economy experiences
9:44net outflows, in other words, it pays out more dollars than come in during
9:49that period of time, you're going to see that sector below zero.
9:52It's going to have a deficit.
9:54If a sector is receiving more dollars than it is paying out, it's
9:59going to have a surplus as you're going to see it above zero there.
10:03So the graph is neat and tidy and it may strike people
10:07who are watching this that, you know, wow, they're kind of a mirror of one another.
10:12And that's an important part of the story because every payment
10:16that flows out of one sector has to go somewhere, right?
10:20And it has to be received by some other sector.
10:23So any deficit has to result
10:28in, as we said earlier, a surplus in some other part of the economy.
10:32And so everything has to net to zero.
10:35Another striking feature, remember this goes back to the early 1950s
10:39so that you notice the government is almost always in red.
10:42Government is almost always the one in the deficit position,
10:45whereas the private sector is almost always above zero with a surplus
10:51and we don't have the time, I don't think, to get into the whole rest
10:55of the world and trade imbalances and why that changes over time.
10:58But the important point here is that those government deficits
11:04are the thing that is producing the surpluses that you see above zero.
11:09So if you just look, let's see how far back this goes.
11:14There you go.
11:14So you have the covered spending, right?
11:17Those enormous deficits that were run to try
11:20to support the economy through the pandemic and so forth.
11:24And people really got concerned at the size of the government's
11:28deficit during that period.
11:30But if you look at this in the context of the whole picture,
11:35not just what's happening to the government's budget,
11:38but look up, right, look what's happening to everybody else,
11:42and you'll see that those government deficits were instrumental
11:46in keeping the private sector afloat. Right.
11:50So you can see that big spike in the private sector's financial surplus
11:54in that period, while those surpluses were made possible
11:57by virtue of the government outlays greater than receipts.
12:02So the government's deficit is producing those surpluses.
A:
12:06And I think what's really key that you mentioned
12:09is that this is not a fixed thing, but rather it's up for grabs.
12:14Right.
12:14That that deficit could be going to one place to the to the most wealthy,
12:19the most powerful, to the military, whatever, or it could be going
12:23to the things we need to improve quality of life and and improve
12:27the standard of living for working people, for communities
12:30of color, historically marginalized communities, whoever that may be.
12:33Right.
12:33Like, it's a political question of where those deficits go.
12:37And I think that's so vital.
12:06And I think what's really key that you mentioned
12:09is that this is not a fixed thing, but rather it's up for grabs.
12:14Right.
12:14That that deficit could be going to one place to the to the most wealthy,
12:19the most powerful, to the military, whatever, or it could be going
12:23to the things we need to improve quality of life and and improve
12:27the standard of living for working people, for communities
12:30of color, historically marginalized communities, whoever that may be.
12:33Right.
12:33Like, it's a political question of where those deficits go.
12:37And I think that's so vital.
K:
12:39And the answer is you're right for sure.
12:42And just to be clear, in the pandemic, they went to both places, right?
12:48They went to both.
12:49It wasn't as if Congress said, well, we're going to have to respond
12:54to this, you know, health crisis and this economic crisis.
12:58And so we're going to make a commitment to with the CARES
13:01Act, $2.2 trillion in March of 2020.
13:04They didn't say, I guess it's time
13:07to finally cut the military budget because we're going to have to,
13:10you know, commit a lot of money to supporting the economy
13:14because of the pandemic and the economic fallout and so forth.
13:18Now, they continued to fund and even more generously
13:22so when the defense reauthorization
13:24Act comes up, they put more money into the military
13:27and supported the economy with, you know, fiscal package
13:32after fiscal package after fiscal package, some 5 trillion,
13:36even more than 5 trillion in the span of about
13:41 12 months time.
12:39And the answer is you're right for sure.
12:42And just to be clear, in the pandemic, they went to both places, right?
12:48They went to both.
12:49It wasn't as if Congress said, well, we're going to have to respond
12:54to this, you know, health crisis and this economic crisis.
12:58And so we're going to make a commitment to with the CARES
13:01Act, $2.2 trillion in March of 2020.
13:04They didn't say, I guess it's time
13:07to finally cut the military budget because we're going to have to,
13:10you know, commit a lot of money to supporting the economy
13:14because of the pandemic and the economic fallout and so forth.
13:18Now, they continued to fund and even more generously
13:22so when the defense reauthorization
13:24Act comes up, they put more money into the military
13:27and supported the economy with, you know, fiscal package
13:32after fiscal package after fiscal package, some 5 trillion,
13:36even more than 5 trillion in the span of about
13:41 12 months time.
A:
13:43Yeah.
13:44So, I mean, you know, that really kind of for the organizers and people
13:47in politics listening right like that just shows that it's up for grabs.
13:50And like some
13:51like AOC and some other public officials say these budgets are in many ways
13:55moral documents that say, you know, what do we want to prioritize.
13:43Yeah.
13:44So, I mean, you know, that really kind of for the organizers and people
13:47in politics listening right like that just shows that it's up for grabs.
13:50And like some
13:51like AOC and some other public officials say these budgets are in many ways
13:55moral documents that say, you know, what do we want to prioritize.
K:
You bet.
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